Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. ISM, ADP Data in Focus as Fed Rate Cut Looks Likely

The coming week is shaping up to be a key one for global currency and bond markets — all eyes are on U.S. data releases such as the ISM survey (for manufacturing and services) and the ADP private‑sector jobs report, with markets trying to gauge whether the Federal Reserve will move ahead with an interest‑rate cut. According to money‑market pricing, there’s roughly an 80% chance of a cut in December — a shift that could ripple across forex and fixed‑income markets. Investors will scrutinize the ISM data for signals of economic cooling or strength. A soft ISM reading — especially in the services sector — combined with weaker‑than‑expected ADP payroll growth could boost hopes for a Fed cut. On the flip side, strong jobs data or a surprise uptick in business activity might give the Fed pause, complicating rate expectations. Market watchers also note that recent commentary from some Fed officials has opened the door to a December rate cut, lending further weight to market expectations. The outcome will matter beyond the U.S.: a rate cut could weaken the dollar, lift bond prices, and push investors toward riskier assets — while a hold or hawkish surprise could do the opposite. With volatile swings possible, the next few days may set the tone for global asset allocation and investor sentiment going into the end of the year. #FedWatch #BondMarkets #USDollar #GlobalMacro #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM