US Core Capital Goods Orders Beat Expectations in November, Reinforcing a Strong Investment Story

New U.S. data shows that business demand for equipment stayed resilient in November 2025, even as parts of manufacturing continue to wrestle with policy uncertainty, shifting consumer demand, and a volatile aircraft cycle. The headline that grabbed economists’ attention: core capital goods orders—a widely watched proxy for business equipment investment—rose more than forecast, extending a multi-month streak of gains.

This report matters because it helps answer a big question: Are companies still investing confidently? When firms order machinery, electrical equipment, computers, and industrial tools, it often signals expectations of future growth. In this release, the answer looks like “yes,” with the caveat that transportation and aircraft can distort the overall picture.

What Are “Core Capital Goods Orders,” and Why Do Markets Care?

“Core capital goods” typically refers to non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft. In plain English, it aims to capture the kind of equipment businesses buy to produce goods and services—things like industrial machinery, computers, and electrical gear—while stripping out aircraft because airplane orders can swing wildly month to month.

Investors, economists, and policymakers watch this category because it often lines up with business investment in equipment, which is a key driver of GDP. If orders are rising steadily, it suggests companies are expanding capacity, modernizing operations, and planning for continued demand—signals that can support a stronger growth outlook.

The Big Number: Orders Beat Forecasts in November

In the November 2025 report, non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 0.7%. Economists surveyed by Reuters had expected a smaller gain (around 0.3%), making this an upside surprise.

Just as important, November marked the fifth consecutive monthly increase in these core orders. A single good month can be noise; a streak can be a trend. Five straight gains suggest the underlying pace of equipment spending held up into the fourth quarter.

Why This Report Arrived Late: The Data Delay from the Government Shutdown

This release didn’t come out on its usual schedule. A 43-day U.S. government shutdown delayed the collection and publication of key economic indicators, contributing to what many analysts called a “data fog.” That matters because when the data arrives late, it can be harder for businesses, investors, and the Federal Reserve to read the economy in real time.

Even with the delay, the message from the durable goods report was relatively clear: equipment demand looked steady, and that steadiness is consistent with other signs that the economy carried solid momentum into late 2025.

Durable Goods Overall: A Big Rebound Driven by Aircraft

Zooming out, total durable goods orders jumped 5.3% in November after a decline in October. Durable goods include items meant to last at least three years—everything from appliances and machinery to cars and airplanes.

But here’s the catch: the headline surge was heavily influenced by aircraft. Non-defense aircraft and parts orders surged 97.6%, and Boeing’s reported monthly order count rose sharply (as referenced in the Reuters coverage). Aircraft orders can swing because deals are lumpy and deliveries take years—so economists often separate transportation from the core signal.

Transportation Equipment: The Roller Coaster Component

Transportation equipment orders rose strongly in November, reversing the prior month’s drop. This kind of snapback is common when aircraft orders surge, which is why analysts often prefer the “ex-aircraft” core measure for gauging underlying business investment.

Shipments: The “What Actually Hit the Economy” Companion Measure

Orders show intentions; shipments better reflect what was actually produced and delivered during the month, feeding directly into GDP calculations. In November, shipments of core capital goods rose 0.4% after increasing 0.8% in October, according to reporting that summarized the release.

That’s meaningful because it suggests that not only were companies placing orders, but a decent amount of equipment was also moving through factories and into business use—a sign of ongoing real activity rather than just paper demand.

Inside the Report: Which Categories Drove Strength?

Beyond the aircraft headline, there were gains in several core industrial categories:

• Fabricated metal products posted an increase (reported as up 1.0% in the Reuters write-up).

• Electrical equipment, appliances, and components accelerated (reported as up 1.7%).

• Machinery edged higher (reported as up 0.5%).

• Computers and electronic products also gained modestly (reported as up 0.2%).

These categories matter because they map closely to real-world business decisions: upgrading production lines, expanding capacity, automating warehouses, and investing in computing power.

The Auto Sector: A Softer Spot After EV Credit Timing Effects

Motor vehicle orders slipped in November (reported as a 0.5% decline), and the Reuters coverage tied some of the softness to a post-deadline hangover after the expiration of certain EV tax credits. When incentives are about to end, buyers and fleets often rush to place orders early—then demand cools afterward.

This is a good reminder that not all categories move together. Even in a generally healthy equipment-investment environment, policy deadlines and incentives can shift demand across months, creating bumps that don’t necessarily represent a broader slowdown.

How This Ties to GDP: A Strong Fourth-Quarter Pulse

The broader economic backdrop in late 2025 appeared strong. Reuters noted that third-quarter growth was robust, supported by consumer spending and trade dynamics, and that equipment investment had also contributed meaningfully.

On the “nowcast” side, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model was pointing to roughly 5.4% annualized real GDP growth for Q4 2025 around the time of this durable goods release, reflecting firm consumption and investment inputs. (GDPNow is a model estimate—not an official forecast.)

Tariffs, Manufacturing, and the Uneven Landscape

The durable goods report arrived in an environment where U.S. manufacturing was described as facing pressure from import tariffs, while some sectors—particularly technology-related areas—may benefit from reduced foreign competition. That’s a complicated mix: tariffs can raise input costs for manufacturers but can also reshape competitive dynamics in certain industries.

Manufacturing’s share of the U.S. economy is commonly cited around 10% in the Reuters reporting, so it’s not the whole economy—but it is a critical engine for investment, productivity, and high-value supply chains.

Policy and Tax Details: Why “Bonus Depreciation” Keeps Coming Up

Economists often watch tax rules that affect the cost of investing in equipment. Reuters highlighted expectations that tax reforms including permanent bonus depreciation could support business investment over time. In practical terms, bonus depreciation can allow firms to deduct the cost of eligible equipment more quickly, improving cash flow and potentially encouraging earlier purchases.

The important point: when equipment spending is already holding up, supportive tax treatment can reinforce that trend—though the real-world impact depends on details, timing, and how confident businesses feel about demand.

What This Means for the Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

Central banks don’t set policy based on durable goods alone, but equipment investment is part of the growth picture. Strong core orders and steady shipments can imply momentum in business activity, which can complicate decisions if inflation risks remain. Meanwhile, the shutdown-driven “data fog” has made it harder to interpret some economic signals cleanly, according to coverage discussing disruptions in data collection.

In short: steady investment can be a “good news” growth signal, but it can also keep policymakers alert if the economy runs too hot.

10 Key Takeaways You Can Use (Even If You Hate Economic Jargon)

1. Core capital goods orders rose 0.7% in November—stronger than expected.

2. That marked a five-month streak of gains, suggesting a real trend.

3. Total durable goods orders surged 5.3%, boosted by aircraft.

4. Aircraft orders are volatile, so economists focus on “ex-aircraft” measures to see the underlying story.

5. Core shipments rose 0.4%, supporting the idea that real activity continued.

6. Industrial categories like metals, machinery, and electrical equipment showed gains in the report’s details.

7. Auto orders dipped, partly reflecting timing around EV incentives.

8. The data was delayed by a 43-day shutdown, which also complicated economic interpretation.

9. GDP tracking models at the time were consistent with a strong Q4 growth pulse (model-based estimate).

10. Policy factors—tariffs and tax rules—remain part of the investment outlook story.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1) What exactly are “US core capital goods orders”?

They are typically defined as non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft. Economists use them as a proxy for business spending plans on equipment like machinery and technology.

2) Why exclude aircraft?

Aircraft orders can be extremely volatile because plane deals are large and irregular. Excluding aircraft helps show the steadier underlying trend in business equipment demand.

3) Does higher ordering automatically mean the economy is stronger?

Not automatically, but it often supports that view. Rising orders can suggest businesses anticipate demand and are investing for growth—especially when the increase lasts for several months.

4) What is the difference between “orders” and “shipments”?

Orders reflect new demand placed during the month. Shipments reflect goods actually delivered, which is more directly tied to near-term GDP calculations.

5) Why was this data delayed?

The report was delayed due to a 43-day U.S. government shutdown that disrupted data collection and reporting schedules.

6) What should regular people watch next after this report?

Many analysts look for consistency across indicators: future durable goods reports, inflation data as it normalizes post-shutdown, and GDP estimates/nowcasts. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow page also explains that its estimate is model-driven and can change as new data arrives.

Conclusion: A Steady Investment Signal with Some Big-Category Noise

The November durable goods report delivered a straightforward bottom line: US core capital goods orders beat expectations, extending a five-month run of gains and suggesting that equipment investment remained on solid footing into the fourth quarter.

At the same time, the report also showed how a few categories—especially aircraft—can swing the headline numbers dramatically, and why analysts prefer the “core” measure for a clearer read on business behavior. Add in the aftereffects of a long shutdown and ongoing policy debates, and it’s fair to say the economy’s story is still complex. But on investment intentions, this data point leaned optimistic.

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