The History Doesn’t Look Good Four Years Into a Bull Market — But Some Strategists Are Still Bullish

Despite historical patterns that suggest stocks typically weaken by the fourth year of a bull market, several market strategists remain optimistic about continued gains. Historically, only two out of the last six bull markets extended beyond their fourth year, and the S&P 500 has seen modest median returns in that period — signs that caution might be warranted. Ed Clissold of Ned Davis Research highlights that the S&P 500’s price‑to‑earnings ratio is unusually high for this stage of the cycle, and profit margins are historically elevated. Yet, he still favors maintaining equity exposure while staying alert to growing risks. Daniel von Ahlen of TS Lombard is even more positive, pointing to stronger global GDP forecasts, healthy services activity, low oil prices, accommodative monetary policy, and rising world trade. He suggests overweighting cyclical U.S. sectors like industrials, financials, and materials, and even shorting volatility instruments such as SVXY. Broader market context shows some mixed signals: stock futures have softened, gold and bitcoin declined, and certain corporate earnings surprised to the downside, while defense and tech companies reported gains. #BullMarket #MarketOutlook #InvestingStrategy #StockMarketTrends #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM