Solar Power Set to Overtake Coal in Texas Electricity Generation for the First Time in 2026

Texas is preparing for a major shift in its electricity mix as solar power is forecast to generate more electricity than coal in 2026 for the first time in the state’s main power grid. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, utility-scale solar generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, known as ERCOT, is expected to reach about 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, compared with about 60 billion kilowatt-hours from coal.

Solar Growth Marks a Turning Point for Texas Energy

The forecast is important because Texas has long been known as one of America’s biggest fossil fuel states. Oil, natural gas, and coal have played major roles in its economy and power system for decades. However, the latest outlook shows that solar energy is becoming a central part of the Texas electricity story.

ERCOT manages the grid that serves most of Texas. In recent years, solar farms have expanded quickly across the state, helped by strong sunshine, large open land areas, falling equipment costs, and rising electricity demand. The result is a fast-changing power mix where solar is no longer a small backup source. It is becoming one of the main tools Texas uses to meet daily electricity needs.

What the Forecast Says

The EIA expects solar generation in ERCOT to rise to 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026. Coal generation is expected to reach 60 billion kilowatt-hours in the same year. That means solar would move ahead of coal on an annual basis for the first time in the Texas grid that covers most of the state.

The trend is expected to continue in 2027. EIA forecasts solar generation could climb to 99 billion kilowatt-hours, while coal generation may reach about 66 billion kilowatt-hours.

Why Solar Is Expanding So Quickly

Several factors are driving the rise of solar power in Texas. First, the state has excellent solar resources. Many parts of Texas receive strong sunlight for much of the year, making large-scale solar farms highly productive.

Second, electricity demand is growing. The EIA says demand in ERCOT is rising because of large power users, including data centers, cryptocurrency mining, industrial activity, refining, oil and gas operations, and broader economic growth.

Third, solar projects can often be built faster than traditional power plants. Developers can add capacity in stages, and many projects are designed to connect directly to the grid. This makes solar attractive when demand is rising quickly.

Natural Gas Still Leads the Grid

Even though solar is expected to pass coal, natural gas remains the largest electricity source in ERCOT. From 2021 to 2025, natural gas supplied an average of about 44% of generation in the grid. During that same period, solar’s share rose from 4% to 12%, while coal’s share fell from 19% to 13%.

This means the Texas power transition is not simply a switch from fossil fuels to renewables overnight. Instead, the grid is becoming more mixed. Natural gas remains the main source, wind power continues to be important, solar is growing quickly, and coal is losing ground.

Solar Has Already Beaten Coal in Some Months

The annual crossover expected in 2026 follows earlier monthly milestones. EIA reported that solar generation exceeded coal generation in ERCOT for the first time on a monthly basis in March 2025, when solar produced 4.33 billion kilowatt-hours and coal produced 4.16 billion kilowatt-hours.

That monthly result showed how much the grid had already changed. Solar output tends to be strongest in spring and summer when days are longer and sunlight is more intense. Coal can still rise during certain periods, especially when demand peaks or solar output falls, but the broader direction is clear.

What This Means for Coal

Coal is not disappearing from Texas immediately. It is still expected to generate tens of billions of kilowatt-hours in both 2026 and 2027. However, its role is shrinking compared with cleaner and more flexible sources.

Coal plants face pressure from cheaper renewable power, stricter environmental concerns, older plant fleets, and competition from natural gas. As more solar and battery storage enter the grid, coal may become less competitive during daytime hours when solar output is high.

The Role of Battery Storage

Solar power produces electricity when the sun is shining, so storage is becoming more important. Batteries can store extra solar electricity during sunny hours and release it later when demand rises in the evening.

This is especially useful in Texas, where hot summer afternoons and evenings can place heavy stress on the grid. More battery storage could help make solar power more reliable and reduce the need for fossil fuel plants during peak periods.

Rising Demand Creates Both Opportunity and Risk

The growth of solar comes at a time when Texas is using more electricity. Population growth, industrial expansion, data centers, and energy-intensive businesses are adding pressure to the grid.

This creates an opportunity for solar developers, but it also creates challenges for ERCOT. The grid must balance supply and demand every second. As weather-dependent power sources grow, Texas will need stronger transmission lines, better forecasting, more storage, and enough backup generation to keep electricity reliable.

A Major Signal for the U.S. Energy Market

Texas is one of the largest electricity markets in the United States. When its power mix changes, the impact is watched closely across the country. The expected solar-over-coal milestone shows that renewable energy is not only growing in states with strict clean-energy rules. It is also expanding in markets where economics and demand are pushing change.

For investors, the forecast signals continued interest in solar farms, battery systems, grid upgrades, and energy technology. For consumers, it may affect future power prices, grid reliability planning, and debates over how Texas should manage rapid electricity growth.

Conclusion

The EIA forecast marks a historic moment for Texas energy. In 2026, solar power is expected to generate more electricity than coal in ERCOT for the first time. This change reflects years of solar growth, rising electricity demand, falling renewable costs, and a changing power market.

Coal will still remain part of the Texas electricity mix, and natural gas will continue to lead overall generation. However, solar’s rapid rise shows that the state’s energy future is becoming more diverse. For Texas, the challenge now is not only building more power but also building a grid that can handle fast growth, extreme weather, and a cleaner generation mix.

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