Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q4 Performance: A Detailed Look at Wall Street’s Most-Watched Metrics

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q4 Performance is back in the spotlight as analysts publish fresh forecasts for earnings, revenue, steel pricing, and shipment volumes ahead of the company’s upcoming quarterly report. If you’re tracking CLF, it’s not enough to only glance at “EPS” and “revenue.” The market often reacts to the smaller building blocks underneath—like coated steel revenue, hot-rolled volumes, and average selling price per ton.

This rewritten, expanded news-style article explains the latest consensus expectations, what changed in the past month, and why these details matter for investors who want a clearer picture of how Cleveland-Cliffs may have performed in the quarter.

What Wall Street Expects in the Upcoming Cleveland-Cliffs Quarter

According to the latest analyst consensus, Cleveland-Cliffs is expected to report a quarterly loss of -$0.62 per share. Interestingly, that would be an “improvement” compared with the same quarter last year—because the loss is expected to be smaller than the year-ago result (the estimate implies an 8.8% improvement year over year). Meanwhile, analysts see revenue of about $4.62 billion, which would represent roughly 6.8% year-over-year growth.

Those two numbers (EPS and revenue) are the headline items. But the market’s real “tell” can be in the components—where revenue is coming from, how many tons are shipping out the door, and what prices the company is capturing per ton.

Why estimate revisions matter more than many people think

One important detail: in the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate was revised down by about 17.4%. That means analysts, as a group, became more cautious recently. Revisions can shape short-term price moves because they influence expectations going into earnings day.

In plain terms: if expectations slide lower, it can sometimes become “easier to beat” the forecast. But it can also signal that analysts see near-term pressure—like weaker pricing, softer demand, higher costs, or unfavorable product mix.

The Key Revenue Breakdown Analysts Are Watching

Cleveland-Cliffs is a major U.S.-focused steel producer with a product mix that includes coated steel, hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel, plate, and specialty categories like stainless and electrical steel. Wall Street typically splits its revenue expectations into major buckets—especially Steelmaking and Other Businesses.

1) Revenues – Other Businesses

Analysts estimate “Revenues – Other Businesses” at about $161.74 million, which would be roughly +3% year over year. While this is smaller than the steelmaking segment, it can still influence the overall picture—especially when steel markets are choppy.

2) Revenues – Steelmaking (the big engine)

The main event is steelmaking. The consensus forecast calls for Steelmaking revenue of about $4.46 billion, implying about +6.9% year-over-year growth.

If this holds, it suggests a quarter where either pricing, volumes, or product mix improved enough to offset costs and any weaker areas.

3) Steelmaking revenue – Coated steel

Coated steel is especially important because it is commonly tied to higher-value end markets (often including automotive and appliances). Analysts estimate coated steel revenue around $1.37 billion, up roughly +11.6% year over year.

That’s a notable growth rate inside the bigger steelmaking bucket. If coated steel is gaining share, it can influence margins (though it depends on costs and contract terms).

4) Steelmaking revenue – Slab and other steel products

This subcategory is expected to come in at about $215.64 million, which would be -13.4% year over year.

So while some parts of steelmaking are forecast to grow (like coated steel), others are expected to shrink. That internal push-and-pull is exactly why investors watch the sub-metrics.

Shipment Volumes: The “Real Economy” Signal Behind the Numbers

Revenue can go up or down because of price swings, but shipment volumes help you see “how much steel actually moved.” In steel, tonnage matters—because it can reflect demand conditions and plant utilization.

5) External sales volumes – Total steel shipments

Analysts forecast total steel shipments of about 4,010 thousand tons, up from roughly 3,827 thousand tons a year ago.

That implies volumes are expected to rise year over year. If that happens alongside steady pricing, it can support revenue growth. If pricing is soft, higher tonnage can still help—but sometimes at the cost of margins, depending on discounts and mix.

6) Average net selling price per net ton of steel products

Pricing is the other half of the story. The consensus estimate is an average selling price of about $1,004.02 per net ton, compared with $976.00 in the year-ago quarter.

That suggests analysts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to capture better pricing on average. But keep in mind: an “average price” can shift because of product mix (more coated vs. more commodity hot-rolled), contract timing, and spot market changes.

Steel Shipments by Product: Where Demand May Be Stronger (or Weaker)

Not all steel is the same. Different product types serve different customers, and they can behave differently when the economy shifts. Analysts break shipments into categories to see where momentum is building.

7) Coated steel shipments

Wall Street sees coated steel shipments around 1,145 thousand tons, compared with 1,012 thousand tons a year ago.

This aligns with the coated steel revenue growth forecast. If coated volumes rise, it may indicate steadier demand in end markets that value coated products.

8) Slab and other steel products shipments

Analysts project 358 thousand tons, down from 382 thousand tons in the year-ago quarter.

This matches the weaker revenue expectation in the slab/other bucket, hinting at softer demand or a deliberate shift away from that category.

9) Plate shipments

Plate is expected at 227 thousand tons, up from 174 thousand tons a year ago.

That’s a meaningful jump. Plate demand can be tied to heavy industry, infrastructure, and certain equipment markets. Rising plate shipments can be a positive signal—if pricing and costs cooperate.

10) Cold-rolled shipments

The forecast calls for 626 thousand tons, up from 594 thousand tons a year ago.

Cold-rolled steel is often used where strength and surface finish matter. Higher cold-rolled volumes can help revenue quality, depending on spreads and production costs.

11) Hot-rolled shipments

Hot-rolled is a major benchmark product for the steel industry. Analysts estimate 1,523 thousand tons, slightly below the 1,534 thousand tons from the year-ago period.

This mild decline can happen even when total shipments rise—because the mix can shift toward coated, plate, or cold-rolled.

12) Stainless and electrical steel shipments

The estimate is 145 thousand tons, up from 131 thousand tons a year ago.

This is a smaller category, but it can matter because specialty products may carry different margin profiles. Electrical steel can also be closely watched due to grid, energy, and industrial demand trends.

How the Market Has Treated CLF Recently

In the most recent month measured in the report, CLF shares rose about 7.4% while the referenced broader benchmark rose around 0.9%.

Short-term stock moves don’t “prove” fundamentals improved. But they do show investor interest and changing expectations. A stock can rise into earnings if traders think results will be better than feared—or if the market expects guidance to improve.

Zacks Rank snapshot

At the time of the report, the stock carried a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which typically implies an expectation of roughly market-like performance in the near term (within that framework).

What These Metrics Could Mean for Cleveland-Cliffs

Let’s connect the dots in a simple way:

• Revenue is expected to rise (+6.8% YoY), which suggests that the top line is not collapsing even in a challenging commodity environment.
• Total shipments are expected to rise (4010 vs. 3827 thousand tons), implying stronger volume or improved shipments flow.
• Average selling price is expected to be higher ($1,004.02 vs. $976.00), suggesting pricing or mix may be improving.
• But EPS expectations fell sharply in the last month (down 17.4% over 30 days), signaling analysts became more cautious about profitability.

That combination can happen when costs are rising, spreads are narrowing, planned maintenance hits production, or when product mix changes in a way that raises expenses. For steel companies, profitability is often driven by the “spread” between selling prices and input costs (iron ore, scrap, energy, logistics, and labor).

What to Watch on Earnings Day (Beyond the Headline EPS)

If you’re following CLF’s earnings release, here are the practical items many investors look for after the company reports:

Management commentary on steel demand

Numbers tell you what happened. Management tells you what might happen next. Investors typically listen for clues about demand from major end markets, order rates, and whether customers are restocking or staying cautious.

Pricing outlook and contract timing

Even if the average selling price comes in near expectations, the market may react to guidance about future pricing—especially if contract resets are approaching or spot prices are moving fast.

Shipment mix (coated vs. hot-rolled vs. plate)

Because coated steel is forecast to grow while hot-rolled is forecast to dip slightly, investors may focus on whether CLF is shifting toward higher-value products—and whether that shift actually helps margins.

Any signals about cost control

Steel is capital intensive. Costs can swing because of energy, raw materials, plant utilization, and efficiency changes. If revenue is rising but earnings stay weak, investors often ask: “Are costs the culprit, or is pricing still too soft?”

How This Fits Into the Bigger Cleveland-Cliffs Story

Over the past few years, Cleveland-Cliffs has been closely watched as a major domestic player tied to U.S. industrial demand. The company’s quarterly performance can be influenced by:

• Broader manufacturing trends
• Automotive production cycles
• Infrastructure-related demand
• Import competition and trade policy
• Spot vs. contract pricing dynamics

That’s why this kind of “key metrics preview” matters: it helps investors see whether Wall Street expects strength in higher-value products (like coated steel) and whether volumes and pricing trends are leaning favorable—or not.

FAQs About the Upcoming Cleveland-Cliffs Quarter

1) What is the main EPS estimate for this quarter?

Analysts expect Cleveland-Cliffs to report a loss of -$0.62 per share for the upcoming quarter.

2) What revenue level is Wall Street forecasting?

The consensus forecast is about $4.62 billion in revenue, which would be roughly 6.8% higher than the year-ago quarter.

3) Why do estimate revisions matter before earnings?

Revisions show whether analysts are becoming more optimistic or cautious. In this case, the EPS estimate has been revised lower by about 17.4% over the past month, which can influence investor expectations and stock reactions.

4) Which segment drives most of Cleveland-Cliffs revenue?

Steelmaking is the core driver. Analysts estimate steelmaking revenue around $4.46 billion for the quarter.

5) What shipment volume is expected?

Wall Street expects total steel shipments of about 4,010 thousand tons, compared with 3,827 thousand tons a year ago.

6) What is the forecast for average steel selling price?

The consensus estimate is about $1,004.02 per net ton, compared with $976.00 in the same quarter last year.

Conclusion: How to Use These Estimates Wisely

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Q4 Performance expectations paint a mixed but informative picture: revenue and shipment volumes are forecast to rise, and average selling price is expected to be higher year over year. At the same time, earnings expectations have been revised downward in the last month—suggesting profitability concerns still exist.

If you’re reading this as an investor, the smartest move is to treat these numbers as a “map,” not a guarantee. Watch how the actual results compare with these key metrics—and pay close attention to management’s outlook for pricing, demand, and costs in the coming quarter.

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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