Sempra Energy’s Q4 Earnings Preview: Expectations, Drivers, and Market Implications

Sempra Energy, the large U.S. utility company that provides natural gas and electricity to millions of customers, is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings results on February 26, 2026. Investors, analysts, and energy market participants are now turning their attention to what the company might report, how it compares to prior periods, and what it could mean for Sempra’s stock and future strategy.

Expected Earnings and Revenue Figures

According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, analysts forecast that Sempra Energy will report earnings of approximately $1.13 per share for the fourth quarter, which would represent a year-over-year decline when compared to the same period last year. This expected drop—nearly a 25% decrease from the previous year—largely reflects slower overall revenue growth and increased costs.

On the revenue side, consensus forecasts project total quarterly revenues to be around $3.64 billion. If realized, this would be lower than in the year-ago quarter, indicating a slight contraction in Sempra’s overall sales performance.

These estimated figures already incorporate recent revisions from analysts who follow the company closely. The fact that estimates have inched slightly higher in recent weeks suggests that some analysts see at least neutral or modestly improved results ahead of the actual report.

What Analysts Are Watching: Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank

One metric that Wall Street research platforms such as Zacks use to gauge the likelihood of an earnings surprise is the Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). For Sempra Energy, this number has been reported as positive, implying that the most recent analyst estimates are higher than the broader consensus. That, in turn, increases the statistical odds that the company could beat earnings expectations when the real numbers are released.

In addition, Sempra currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3, which is generally categorized as a hold. Stocks with this rank may have a neutral outlook, but when paired with a positive Earnings ESP, the probability of posting a quarterly earnings beat becomes more likely—according to the predictive models used by Zacks analysts.

While these predictive tools are not guarantees, they’re widely followed by institutional and retail investors who look for cues about corporate performance before earnings are released. Combining the positive ESP with a neutral rank suggests that Sempra might deliver results that slightly exceed expectations.

Historical Earnings Performance and Trends

It’s useful to view the upcoming earnings report in the context of Sempra’s recent earnings history. Over the past several quarters, the company has frequently outperformed consensus estimates, although not universally. For example, in a recent quarter, Sempra reported earnings of $1.11 per share when analysts had expected around $0.93, resulting in a notable surprise to the upside.

This track record may give some investors more confidence that the company can continue to deliver better-than-anticipated results, even if overall earnings and revenues are expected to decline year-over-year. Additionally, a history of precious earnings beats can sometimes bolster investor sentiment in advance of a quarterly report.

Key Business Segments and Strategic Drivers

Sempra operates through two main business segments: Sempra Utilities, which serves retail gas and electric customers, and Sempra Infrastructure, which focuses on energy infrastructure projects such as liquefied natural gas (LNG) export terminals and transmission assets. Investors will be listening closely to what management says about each segment’s performance and outlook.

In recent years, Sempra has increasingly emphasized its infrastructure growth strategy. This includes expansion into international energy markets, particularly LNG facilities in North America that serve global fuel demand. These long-term infrastructure assets are intended to provide stable earnings over time, even if short-term fluctuations occur in utility revenue.

If Sempra Infrastructure continues to deliver solid results, it could offset some weakness in the utility business, especially if weather patterns or consumption trends weigh on retail demand. Conversely, higher interest expenses and costs related to construction or financing of new projects could temper net earnings.

Costs and Challenges: Interest, Operating Expenses, and Demand Trends

Two major categories of expenses that analysts are scrutinizing ahead of the earnings release are operating costs and interest expenses. Utilities and energy infrastructure companies often carry significant long-term debt to finance large capital projects. In 2025, interest rates remained elevated, which increased the cost of servicing that debt. Higher interest expenses can reduce net income even when revenue remains steady.

Similarly, operating expenses—including maintenance, labor, and fuel costs—can also reduce profitability. If these costs rose faster than revenues in the quarter, it would help explain why earnings estimates are expected to show a year-over-year decrease.

Moreover, utility demand can be influenced by factors such as weather. Mild weather typically leads to lower energy usage (e.g., less heating or cooling), which can reduce revenue. Analysts periodically mention weather as a variable in quarterly results, although its exact impact is hard to quantify ahead of time.

Market Reaction and Stock Price Considerations

Sempra’s stock price movement around earnings announcements is often driven not only by the reported numbers but also by management’s commentary on future expectations. If Sempra beats earnings estimates modestly but signals concerns about demand or costs going forward, the stock could still underperform. Likewise, a beat accompanied by strong forward guidance might trigger buying activity.

According to market data discussed in recent financial news coverage, Sempra’s stock has experienced modest gains in early 2026 despite broader market pressures on energy stocks. Much of this may reflect anticipation of stable long-term infrastructure earnings, but quarterly volatility remains a focus for traders and investors.

What Analysts Will Listen For on the Earnings Call

After the earnings figures are released, Sempra’s management typically holds an earnings call with analysts and investors. These calls provide valuable insights beyond the raw numbers, including commentary on business conditions, cost management strategies, investment priorities, and expectations for the coming quarters.

Key questions likely to arise during the call include:

• How is demand trending in the utility customer base?
• What is the outlook for infrastructure project timelines and returns?
• Are operating costs expected to stabilize or rise further?
• How does management view the broader energy market environment?

These responses often have a direct impact on investor sentiment in the hours and days after earnings are published.

Comparisons With Other Utility and Energy Stocks

It’s common for analysts to compare earnings expectations across companies in the same industry. As of this reporting cycle, several other energy and utility companies are also releasing earnings, and their results provide context for Sempra’s performance:

• ONE Gas recently beat earnings expectations for Q4, reporting stronger profitability than expected.
• UGI Corporation reported a narrower-than-expected loss, showing resilience despite revenue shortfalls.
• Spire Inc. saw larger losses than projected, indicating challenges in certain utility segments.

These comparisons help analysts gauge whether Sempra’s performance aligns with broader industry trends or diverges due to company-specific dynamics.

Investor Takeaways Before the Earnings Release

In summary, here are the key points investors and analysts are watching as Sempra Energy prepares to report its fourth-quarter earnings:

• Consensus earnings and revenue estimates suggest a year-over-year decline.
• Positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 indicate a modest possibility of beating expectations.
• Operating costs, interest expenses, and utility demand trends are critical drivers of performance.
• Management’s commentary on the earnings call will be a major influence on the stock’s near-term price action.
• Industry comparisons show mixed results among peer utility and energy companies.

As always, actual earnings results and forward guidance could differ from estimates. Nevertheless, the upcoming report will be a key data point for investors evaluating Sempra’s medium- to long-term performance in the evolving energy sector.

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