Oppenheimer Turns Bullish as an Analyst Sets Oracle Stock Price Target at $185

Oracle Corporation (NASDAQ: ORCL) is back in the spotlight after a fresh Wall Street call pushed the stock higher in pre-market trading on Wednesday, February 25, 2026. The catalyst: Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz upgraded Oracle to “Buy” and set a new 12-month price target of $185, a level that suggests more than 25% upside from Oracle’s prior close near $146.

The upgrade arrives at a time when Oracle’s story is both exciting and controversial. On one hand, investors see Oracle as a key player in the next phase of cloud computing and AI infrastructure. On the other hand, many fear that Oracle’s push to build AI capacity will require massive spending, more financing, and potentially years of patience before the payoff becomes clear.

What the Analyst Said: Upgrade to “Buy” and a $185 Target

According to Finbold, Schwartz’s upgrade was not framed as a “perfect timing” call. Instead, it was framed as a risk/reward decision after Oracle’s valuation cooled significantly. Schwartz said the call could still be early because Oracle needs time to prove how profitable it can be as a more capital-intensive business going forward.

Still, Oppenheimer believes the setup has changed enough to justify stepping in. The key argument is that Oracle’s valuation multiples have been cut by more than half since September, which the analyst views as creating a more attractive entry point—especially if sentiment improves and execution risks continue to ease.

In short, the thesis is not “Oracle has no risks.” It’s more like: the market has priced in a lot of risk already, and the potential upside may now outweigh the downside—if Oracle can show progress and keep its growth story credible.

Why Oracle Has Been Under Pressure: A 2026 Slide and AI-Capex Anxiety

Even with the pre-market bounce, Oracle has been going through a rough stretch. Finbold notes the stock was down roughly 25% in 2026 at the time of the report, extending a selloff that started in late 2025.

The main driver of the selloff has been investor unease about Oracle’s aggressive spending on AI and cloud infrastructure. Building out AI capacity is expensive: it can mean new data centers, high-end servers, networking gear, power and cooling upgrades, and long-term commitments that don’t always pay off immediately. That spending can pressure:

• Margins (profits can look weaker while costs rise)
• Free cash flow (cash gets tied up in building capacity)
• Balance sheet leverage (more debt or financing needs)
• Execution risk (building big systems fast is hard)

Those concerns are not limited to one firm. Recent commentary across financial media has highlighted anxiety that Oracle’s AI expansion leaves “little room for error,” especially if the company relies heavily on financing to fund buildouts.

Why Oppenheimer Thinks the Risk/Reward Has Improved

Oppenheimer’s argument, as presented by Finbold, centers on three big ideas:

1) Valuation reset: “Multiples cut by more than half”

When a stock’s valuation multiple drops sharply, it can change the whole debate. Instead of asking, “Is this company perfect?” investors start asking, “How much bad news is already priced in?” Schwartz pointed to the fact that Oracle’s valuation multiples have been reduced by more than 50% since September, implying that the market has already repriced Oracle for heavier spending and greater uncertainty.

2) Oracle’s AI story still matters

Finbold describes Schwartz as arguing that Oracle is a strong AI winner as sentiment shifts and certain risks begin to look more manageable. This is important because AI infrastructure demand is one of the most powerful narratives in technology markets right now. If Oracle can keep landing major customers and prove its cloud economics, it could regain investor confidence.

3) Easing risks: counterparty, financing, execution

Schwartz cited factors that support optimism, including the idea that counterparty, financing, and execution risks may be easing due to capital-raising initiatives and major customer wins (Finbold specifically mentions OpenAI as one example of a key customer win).

Put plainly: if the “who pays?” and “can Oracle deliver?” questions look less scary than they did a few months ago, a lower valuation can become a compelling setup for buyers.

What Investors Are Watching Next: Oracle Earnings on March 9

Finbold notes investors were looking ahead to Oracle’s next earnings report scheduled for March 9. Earnings dates matter a lot when a stock is tied to a big narrative (like AI infrastructure), because management guidance, margins, backlog/contract updates, and capex plans can either calm the market or reignite fear.

If Oracle provides clearer evidence that its spending is translating into durable revenue and improving profitability over time, the market could become more willing to pay up again. But if Oracle’s numbers suggest ballooning costs without enough revenue acceleration, skeptics may argue the valuation still isn’t low enough.

The Earnings Power Argument: “Strong EPS Compounder” Through 2030

One of the most interesting parts of the Finbold summary is how Schwartz frames Oracle’s long-term earnings outlook. He calls Oracle a “strong EPS compounder” and suggests that even with conservative assumptions, Oracle’s earnings could grow substantially by the end of the decade.

Base-case thinking: haircut revenue guidance, but still bullish on earnings

Finbold reports that Schwartz’s base-case scenario includes a 25% haircut to management’s revenue guidance, yet it still results in a projection where earnings could double by fiscal 2030.

This is a key rhetorical move: it’s basically saying, “Even if Oracle doesn’t hit its most optimistic revenue path, the business model could still generate strong earnings growth.” That may be especially appealing for investors who want exposure to AI infrastructure but don’t want to assume perfection.

Projected EPS growth rates (as reported)

Finbold also summarizes Oppenheimer’s projections:

• Base case: pro-forma EPS growth at about 20% CAGR, reaching $12.66 (as reported by Finbold).
• Bull case: EPS growth at about 30% annually, reaching $17.79 (as reported by Finbold).

Important note: These are analyst projections and scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes. They depend on Oracle executing well, demand remaining strong, and financing staying manageable.

Why Oracle’s AI Infrastructure Bet Is Both a Strength and a Risk

Oracle’s current narrative looks like a classic “big opportunity, big investment” cycle. AI infrastructure demand can be massive, but so are the upfront costs. This creates a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

The bullish view: Oracle can become a major AI infrastructure winner

Bulls point to Oracle’s position in cloud infrastructure, its enterprise relationships, and its ability to sign large, long-term contracts. In broader coverage of Oracle’s AI expansion, analysts have highlighted how major cloud deals and “performance obligations” can signal strong demand—though they also come with heavy build requirements.

The skeptical view: costs, debt, and “little room for error”

On the other side, skepticism has focused on how expensive AI buildouts can become. Some analysts have warned that AI expansion could pressure Oracle’s financials and require enormous capital spending and financing over multiple years.

This is why Schwartz’s upgrade is notable: he’s essentially saying that despite those fears, the stock’s valuation and improving risk backdrop make the tradeoff worth it now.

How the $185 Price Target Could Be Interpreted

A price target can mean different things depending on who reads it. Here’s a practical way to think about the $185 target:

• It’s a 12-month view, not a promise of long-term value.
• It reflects a valuation judgment: Oppenheimer believes current pricing undervalues the medium-term opportunity relative to the risks.
• It’s a confidence signal: moving to “Buy” suggests the analyst believes the probability-weighted outcome has improved.

However, it also comes with the analyst’s own caution: the call may be early because Oracle must still demonstrate the financial success of a more capital-intensive model.

Big Risks the Analyst Acknowledged (And Why They Still Matter)

Finbold reports Schwartz also acknowledged why investor skepticism is understandable. Among the concerns cited:

• Balance sheet strain (more leverage can increase vulnerability)
• Margin pressure from AI investments
• Elevated counterparty risk (reliance on large customers and their ability to pay)
• Significant financing needs to fund infrastructure expansion

These risks are not just abstract. They influence how investors value Oracle today and how quickly sentiment can change after earnings or major announcements.

How This Fits Into the Bigger Wall Street Debate on Oracle

Oracle has seen a wide range of views from analysts over time—some very bullish and others cautious, often depending on how they model AI-related spending, contract quality, and long-term profitability. Recent coverage highlights that Oracle has been at the center of debates about whether markets are underestimating AI infrastructure costs or underestimating the size of the opportunity.

That backdrop helps explain why a “Buy” upgrade can move the stock: it’s not only about one number. It’s about how a respected analyst frames the same facts—spending, financing, contracts—and decides the valuation now compensates for those uncertainties.

What This Means for Everyday Readers (Without the Hype)

If you’re not a professional investor, here’s the simple takeaway:

• Oracle is spending heavily to compete in AI and cloud infrastructure.
• That spending scared the market, and the stock dropped sharply.
• Oppenheimer thinks the drop went too far and set a $185 target with a “Buy” rating.
• The big question now is whether Oracle can prove its spending leads to strong profits over time.

In other words, Oracle’s stock story is less about “today’s hype” and more about execution over the next few quarters and years.

Key Numbers Mentioned in the Report (Quick Recap)

• Upgrade: Buy (Oppenheimer)
• 12-month price target: $185
• Implied upside: 25%+ from around $146
• Pre-market move on Feb 25, 2026: about +2.3%
• 2026 performance at the time: about -25%
• Valuation multiples: cut by more than half since September
• Next earnings date mentioned: March 9

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1) Who set the new Oracle stock price target of $185?

Finbold reports that Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz upgraded Oracle to “Buy” and set the $185 12-month price target.

2) Why did Oracle stock rise in pre-market trading on February 25, 2026?

The stock edged higher in pre-market trading after the new “Buy” rating and $185 price target were reported, helping boost sentiment.

3) Why has Oracle stock been down in 2026?

Finbold links the decline mainly to investor concerns about Oracle’s aggressive AI and cloud infrastructure spending and the risks that come with heavy capital investment.

4) What does it mean when an analyst says the call may be “early”?

It means the analyst believes the investment thesis could take time to show up in financial results—especially because Oracle needs to demonstrate the profitability of a more capital-intensive approach.

5) What are the biggest risks mentioned around Oracle’s AI buildout?

Risks include potential balance sheet strain, margin pressure, counterparty risk, and the financing required to support infrastructure expansion.

6) When is Oracle’s next earnings report, according to the article?

Finbold notes the next earnings report is scheduled for March 9.

Conclusion: A Bullish Target, But Execution Still Has to Do the Heavy Lifting

Oracle’s latest analyst upgrade captures the moment the company is living through: huge opportunity, huge investment, and a market that can swing quickly between excitement and fear. Oppenheimer’s $185 target and “Buy” rating reflect a belief that Oracle’s valuation has reset enough to make the risk/reward attractive—especially if financing and execution risks continue to improve.

At the same time, the caution remains real. Oracle must prove it can turn capital-heavy AI infrastructure expansion into durable profits. The next few earnings reports—starting with the one highlighted for March 9—will likely shape whether the market embraces the bullish view or returns to the worry list.

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