Oil Futures Face Pressure as Russian Supply Comes Back Online

Crude oil futures are meandering in a tight range, with gains held in check by major moving averages as global supply dynamics shift. The spotlight has turned to the swift resumption of exports from the Russian port of Novorossiysk—loadings halted for about two days after a strike and had removed roughly 2.2 million barrels per day from the market. With those flows now back, the temporary supply scare has eased, dampening bullish momentum. On the technical front, light crude is struggling to break above its 50‑day moving average near $60.70 and the 200‑day at about $61.39. These levels are acting as key resistance and hint at the constrained appetite for upside amid the return of Russian barrels. Meanwhile, China is continuing to build its crude inventories: in October its surplus (imports + domestic output minus refinery runs) reached about 690,000 barrels per day—up from 570,000 bpd in September—underscoring Beijing’s role as a stabiliser of global oil balances. Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs warned of a prolonged supply glut, forecasting a glut of roughly 2 million barrels per day by 2026, with their base case putting Brent at around $56 per barrel and WTI at ~$52 in 2026. In short: with Russian exports back online, China absorbing excess (but not overwhelmingly so), and major analysts signalling multi‑year oversupply risks, the short‑term outlook for crude prices leans bearish unless a fresh disruption emerges. The market remains range‑bound, constrained by technical resistance and cautious sentiment. #OilMarkets #CrudeSupply #RussianExports #CommodityOutlook #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM