
Nebius’ Stock Drop Could Signal the Next Big Setup
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Nebius Group N.V. (NASDAQ: NBIS) may have stumbled out of the gate this earnings season, but analysts are flagging the dip as a potential launch pad. Q3 2025 revenue surged 355% year‑over‑year to $146 million, driven by skyrocketing demand for AI infrastructure from hyperscalers and enterprises alike.
The adjusted EBITDA loss improved markedly—down almost 89% to a $5.2 million negative figure, while core infrastructure margins approached 19% amid efficient utilization.
That said, the company raised its full‑year CapEx guidance from $2 billion to $5 billion, underscoring the aggressive build‑out underway. Nebius is targeting 2.5 gigawatts of contracted power and 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt of connected capacity by end‑2026.
And the growth runway looks expansive—an ARR (annualised run rate) of $7‑9 billion by 2026 looms, anchored by multi‑year contracts with giants like Microsoft Corporation and Meta Platforms.
But the flip side: strategic execution and timely delivery are crucial. Capacity bottlenecks, high capital intensity, and rising competition (both from legacy cloud players and newer infrastructure specialists) bring meaningful risks.
In short: Nebius may be laying the foundation for a major breakout—but for now, the dip could represent a high‑risk, high‑reward setup in the AI infrastructure space.
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