Natural Gas and Oil Forecast Shock: Will $7 Gas and $65 Brent Make a Powerful Comeback in 2026?
Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Are $7 Gas and $65 Brent Back in Play?
Energy markets are back in the spotlight. On January 26, 2026, fresh price action in natural gas, WTI crude oil, and Brent crude suggests traders are once again watching big âround-numberâ targetsâlike $7 gas and $65 Brentâas realistic levels, not just wishful thinking.
In the latest market update, WTI crude traded near $61 as rising geopolitical tension added a new ârisk premiumâ (a higher price because supply could be disrupted). At the same time, natural gas pushed above a key breakout area around $6.25, putting $7.20 back on the radar. Brent crude, meanwhile, hovered close to $65 and held support levels that kept bullish hopes alive.
Quick Article Outline
| Section | What Youâll Learn |
|---|---|
| Market Overview | Why energy prices moved and what headlines matter most |
| Natural Gas Forecast | Breakout levels, momentum signals, and what could trigger $7+ |
| WTI Forecast | Support zones, trend structure, and near-term resistance |
| Brent Forecast | Why $65 matters and where buyers may defend next |
| What Could Change the Story | Supply routes, exports, demand risks, and volatility triggers |
| Practical Takeaways | Risk-aware ideas, key levels to watch, and common mistakes |
Market Overview: Why Energy Prices Are Jumping Again
Energy prices often move for two big reasons: supply risk and demand expectations. This week, supply risk grabbed the steering wheel. WTI crude oil climbed as markets reacted to heightened geopolitical tensionâespecially anything that could threaten major shipping routes or production stability. When traders worry that oil might be harder to move from one part of the world to another, prices can rise quickly, even if demand is not booming.
But the story isnât one-sided. While geopolitical stress can push prices higher, there were also signs of potential supply relief. One example mentioned in the update was the expectation that Kazakhstanâs exports may normalize after infrastructure repairs. When exports ânormalize,â it means shipments can return to usual levels, which can calm fears of shortages. That can soften price spikesâor at least slow them down.
On top of that, thereâs also trade uncertainty and mixed signals around global growth. When trade conditions feel shaky, businesses and consumers may slow spending. That can reduce fuel demand expectations. So the market is basically juggling two forces at once:
- Upward pressure: headline-driven risk premium from geopolitical tension
- Downward pressure: uneven demand momentum and possible supply normalization
That tug-of-war is exactly why energy markets can feel âjumpy.â A single headline can change sentiment in minutes. In this environment, price charts matter even moreâbecause traders look to technical levels for structure when the news feels noisy.
Natural Gas Price Forecast: The $6.25 Breakout That Put $7.20 Back on the Map
Natural gas has been the star of this update. The market commentary highlights a strong move higher, with futures trading near $6.25 per MMBtu and breaking above multiple resistance zones. This wasnât described as a weak or âaccidentalâ moveâit was framed as a decisive breakout that may signal trend acceleration.
Why the $5.65â$5.90 Zone Matters
Before the push to $6.25, natural gas spent time stuck in a congestion area near $5.65 to $5.90. Congestion zones are like âtraffic jamsâ for price: buyers and sellers fight, and price struggles to make progress. When price finally breaks above that zone and stays above it, traders often treat it as a meaningful change in behavior.
In the update, the move was described as clearing that congestion and then holding above a Fibonacci extension level near $6.06. The key idea is simple: holding above prior resistance can turn it into support. If that happens, pullbacks may attract buyers instead of panic sellers.
Momentum Signals: Strong Candles and a Bullish Moving Average Shift
The commentary noted strong bullish candles with limited upper wicksâbasically meaning buyers were in control, and sellers werenât pushing price down much before the next wave of buying came in. Thatâs often what traders want to see during a breakout: not just a spike, but a confident push.
Another technical point mentioned was the 50-EMA crossing above the 200-EMA, which is commonly interpreted as a bullish shift in structure. In plain English, it suggests the shorter-term trend is now stronger than the longer-term trend. Traders often view this as confirmation that momentum has changed direction.
RSI Near 70: Strong, But Watch for Breath-Catching
The update also flagged the RSI hovering near 70. RSI is a momentum indicator. Near 70 can mean the move is strong, but it can also hint that price may need a pause or a small pullback before continuing. This doesnât automatically mean âsell,â but it does mean traders should be careful about chasing the market at the very top of a fast rally.
Key Levels to Watch: $6.50 and $7.23
In the near term, resistance was placed around $6.50. If price breaks above that area, the next major upside level discussed was around $7.23 (near the 3.618 Fibonacci level), with an upside target framed near $7.20.
What would make $7+ feel ârealâ instead of âhopefulâ? Usually, three ingredients:
- Price holds above the breakout zone (no quick collapse back under $5.90â$6.06)
- Pullbacks stay shallow (buyers defend support quickly)
- Fresh catalysts appear (weather demand, supply constraints, or bullish macro headlines)
Trade-Style Framework Mentioned in the Update
The article shared a simple framework: buy pullbacks toward about $6.05, aim for $7.20, and use a stop below $5.65. This is not a promiseâjust a structure traders sometimes use to define risk and reward.
Practical note: Many beginners focus only on the target (â$7.20!â) and ignore the stop. But the stop is the seatbelt. Without it, one sharp reversal can cause much bigger losses than expected.
WTI Oil Price Forecast: $61 Holds as Structure Improves
WTI crude oil was trading near $61.10, consolidating after a recovery from a demand zone around $59.00â$59.40. The key message: this looked more like improving structure than a âone-and-doneâ bounce.
Why the $59 Area Is a Big Deal
Support zones are where buyers previously stepped in hard enough to stop a fall. In WTI, the $59 region acted like a floor. When price rebounds and then stays above that floor, traders start to believe the market has formed a base (at least short term).
The update also pointed to a rising trendline from early January lows. Trendlines are simple but powerful: as long as price stays above the rising trendline, the market is still printing higher lowsâoften a sign of an uptrend in progress.
Fibonacci Support and Momentum That Isnât âOverheatedâ
The commentary referenced Fibonacci retracement levels from $55.75 to $62.35, noting price holding above key retracement areas such as about $59.83 (0.382) and around $59.05 (0.5). When several technical supports line up close together, traders call it âconfluence,â and it can strengthen the support story.
Momentum signals were also supportive: the 50-EMA crossing above the 200-EMA again hinted at an improving trend structure, while RSI near 60 suggested bullish momentum without extreme overheating.
Resistance and a Realistic Near-Term âBattle Zoneâ
Resistance was described near $62.35. Thatâs a level where sellers previously showed up. If WTI pushes above it and holds, it could encourage bulls. If it rejects there, the market might drift back toward support near $60.00.
A trade-style framework in the update suggested buying dips near $60, targeting $62.30, with a stop below $59.00. Again, thatâs a risk-defined structure, not a certainty.
Brent Oil Price Forecast: Why $65 Matters and How Bulls Are Defending It
Brent crude traded near $65.10, slightly softer after pulling back from a swing high around $66.80. The key takeaway was that Brent still looked constructive because it remained above a rising trendline and showed signs of buying interest around $65.
Long Lower Wicks: A Simple Clue About Buying Pressure
The update mentioned candles with long lower wicks around $65. In beginner-friendly terms: price dipped lower during the period, but buyers pushed it back up before the candle closed. That often signals buyers are âdefendingâ an area.
Support Levels: $64.13 and $63.30
Fibonacci retracement levels from $59.82 to $66.80 highlighted support near the 0.382 level around $64.13, with deeper support around the 0.5 level near $63.30. When price holds above these supports, bulls can argue the trend is still alive.
Brent was also described as holding above the 50-EMA, while the 200-EMA near $62.50 was sloping higherâanother supportive âbigger pictureâ clue. RSI near 55 suggested neutral-to-bullish momentum.
Resistance Zone: $65.80â$66.80
Resistance remained capped around $65.80 to $66.80. If Brent breaks and holds above that zone, it can pull in momentum traders. If it fails, the market may revisit support levels first.
The trade-style idea shared was buying pullbacks near $64.20, targeting $66.80, with a stop below $63.30.
SoâĶ Are $7 Gas and $65 Brent âBack in Playâ?
Based on the price behavior described in the update, yesâboth levels are back on tradersâ watchlists, but for different reasons.
- $7 natural gas becomes plausible if the breakout above $6.25 holds, pullbacks stay controlled, and bullish momentum continues toward resistance near $6.50 and beyond.
- $65 Brent is already in play because Brent is hovering around that area and showing signs that buyers are defending it, even after a pullback.
Still, these markets are headline-sensitive. Big targets can be reached quickly in energyâbut they can also be rejected quickly if the narrative changes (for example, if supply fears ease or demand looks weaker than expected).
What Could Change the Forecast Fast?
1) Geopolitical Headlines and Shipping Routes
The update emphasized that rising geopolitical risk is keeping energy prices sensitive to headlines. If tensions escalate, the risk premium can increase. If tensions cool, that premium can fade, and prices may drift lower.
2) Supply Updates (Including Export Normalization)
Markets also react to practical supply news, such as repairs that restore exports. When supply constraints ease, it can reduce urgency among buyers.
3) Demand Signals and Global Trade Uncertainty
If trade uncertainty grows and economic confidence weakens, demand expectations can fall. Oil is especially sensitive to demand outlook, because itâs tied closely to transport, manufacturing, and global commerce.
Beginner-Friendly Checklist: Key Levels to Watch This Week
If you want a simple way to follow these markets without overcomplicating things, watch these zones:
- Natural Gas: support near $6.06â$6.05; resistance near $6.50; major upside area near $7.20â$7.23
- WTI: support near $60 and $59; resistance near $62.35
- Brent: support near $64.13 then $63.30; resistance near $65.80â$66.80
FAQs
1) Why do energy prices jump on geopolitical tension?
Because traders worry supply could be disrupted. If oil or gas becomes harder to produce or transport, buyers may pay more now to avoid shortages later.
2) What does ârisk premiumâ mean in oil markets?
Itâs the extra price added because of uncertaintyâlike conflict risk, shipping threats, or unexpected supply problems. When risks fade, that extra premium can shrink.
3) Is a breakout above $6.25 in natural gas automatically bullish?
Itâs a positive sign, but itâs not automatic. Traders want to see price hold above the breakout and avoid quickly falling back under the old resistance area.
4) Why are traders watching $7.20 for natural gas?
Because the update highlighted Fibonacci extension targets and nearby resistance levels that align around $7.20â$7.23, making it a commonly watched upside zone.
5) Whatâs the difference between WTI and Brent?
They are two major oil benchmarks. WTI is closely tied to the U.S. market, while Brent is widely used as a global pricing reference, especially for international trade.
6) How should beginners manage risk in volatile energy markets?
Use smaller position sizes, avoid chasing sudden spikes, define your exit points before entering, and consider using stop-loss levels. Energy can move fastâso planning matters more than predictions.
Source and Further Reading
For the original market update and chart-based discussion, you can review the source here: FXEmpire â Natural Gas and Oil Forecast.
Conclusion: A Watchlist Market With Big Targets and Fast Mood Swings
Right now, energy markets are acting like theyâve had a strong cup of coffeeâsharp moves, quick reactions, and plenty of emotion. Natural gas has re-energized bullish interest by pushing above the $6.25 area, making the $7+ conversation feel legitimate again. Brent holding near $65 keeps that benchmark level in focus, while WTI stabilizing around $61 suggests the market is building structure instead of collapsing.
Still, the biggest driver may not be a single indicatorâitâs the balance between headline risk and real-world supply-and-demand shifts. If geopolitical tension remains elevated, prices may stay supported. If the pressure eases and supply normalizes, markets could cool down just as quickly. Either way, the next moves are likely to be decisive, and the key levels above can help you track the story without getting lost in the noise.
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