Moderna Q4 Earnings Preview: What Investors Should Watch as the Company Heads Into Its Next Big Report

Moderna is heading into a closely watched earnings report, and the big question on Wall Street is simple: will the company beat expectations again, and if it does, will the stock actually hold onto any gains?

According to Zacks Equity Research, Moderna is expected to release results for the quarter ended December 2025 on February 13, 2026. Analysts are looking for a quarterly loss of $2.60 per share on revenue of about $661.4 million, which would mean a sharp year-over-year revenue decline.

That sounds gloomy at first glance—but earnings season is rarely that simple. Moderna’s stock could still move higher if results come in better than expected, if management provides encouraging guidance, or if the market likes what it hears about the company’s pipeline and cost plans.

Why This Earnings Report Matters More Than Usual

For Moderna, earnings aren’t just about one quarter’s revenue number. The company is still navigating the post-pandemic world where COVID-19 vaccine demand is lower and more seasonal than it used to be. That shift changes everything: revenue timing, inventory planning, marketing strategy, and investor patience.

This report matters because it can answer several “make-or-break” questions investors care about right now:

• Can Moderna manage the revenue drop while keeping spending under control?
• Are near-term products (like updated COVID vaccines and RSV) gaining real traction?
• Is the pipeline moving fast enough to create new blockbuster-level revenue streams?
• Will guidance calm or worsen worries about cash burn and the timeline to profitability?

In other words, the numbers matter—but the story matters just as much.

Wall Street Expectations: Revenue, EPS, and the “Bar to Beat”

Expectations going into the report form the “bar” Moderna needs to clear. Based on Zacks’ consensus snapshot, the market is currently braced for:

• Earnings per share (EPS): Loss of $2.60
• Revenue: About $661.4 million
• Year-over-year revenue change: Down roughly 31.5%

Those expectations help explain why even a small positive surprise can move the stock: when the crowd expects disappointment, “less bad” can feel like good news.

Zacks also notes that the consensus EPS estimate has been revised higher by about 1.95% over the last 30 days. That’s a subtle but important clue: analysts, as a group, have become slightly less negative heading into the print.

The Zacks Earnings ESP: What It Is and Why Traders Watch It

If you follow earnings previews, you’ll often see the phrase “Earnings ESP” pop up. Zacks describes this as a model that compares the Most Accurate Estimate (often reflecting the newest analyst updates) to the broader Zacks Consensus Estimate.

For Moderna, Zacks reports:

• Earnings ESP: +3.16%
• Zacks Rank: #3 (Hold)

Zacks argues that a positive Earnings ESP—especially when paired with a Zacks Rank of #1, #2, or #3—can indicate higher odds of an earnings beat. In Moderna’s case, the combination suggests the company is “most likely” to beat the consensus EPS estimate.

Important note: none of this guarantees anything. Earnings models are probability tools, not crystal balls. But they can shape market expectations and short-term trading behavior.

Moderna’s Recent Earnings Surprise Track Record

One reason Moderna stays on investors’ radar is that it has recently surprised the market on earnings. Zacks points out that:

• In the last reported quarter, Moderna was expected to post a loss of $2.15 per share, but it delivered a loss of $0.51, a positive surprise of about 76.28%.
• Over the last four quarters, Moderna has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.

This pattern matters because it shapes investor psychology. If a company builds a reputation for beating expectations, traders may start positioning for another beat—sometimes pushing the stock up before earnings even arrive.

Key Drivers That Could Decide the Quarter

1) COVID Vaccine Demand: Seasonal, Competitive, and Still Critical

Even in a post-pandemic market, COVID vaccines remain a major revenue source for Moderna. The difference now is that demand is more seasonal and more competitive. Investors will watch for signs that Moderna can:

• Maintain market share during seasonal vaccination waves
• Manage inventory without large write-downs
• Execute pricing strategy without losing volume

If revenue comes in above expectations, it may signal Moderna handled this seasonal demand better than analysts feared.

2) Expense Control: When “Cost Discipline” Becomes the Real Product

When revenue is under pressure, spending becomes a spotlight issue. For Moderna, controlling operating expenses can directly impact the earnings loss per share. A “beat” can happen not only through stronger sales, but also through:

• Lower-than-expected R&D spending in the quarter
• Better SG&A control (sales, general, and administrative costs)
• Improved operational efficiency (manufacturing, distribution, and overhead)

Investors will likely listen closely for management commentary on cost plans, timelines, and how spending lines up with pipeline milestones.

3) Pipeline Momentum: The Long Game Investors Pay For

Moderna is often valued less like a single-product vaccine maker and more like a platform biotech company. That means the pipeline can strongly influence investor confidence—especially when near-term vaccine revenue is uneven.

Investors typically want clear answers to questions like:

• Which programs are in late-stage trials, and what’s the timeline?
• What data readouts are expected in 2026?
• Which candidates could become meaningful revenue drivers by 2027–2028?

Even if quarterly numbers are weak, a pipeline update that feels “real” (clear milestones, credible timelines, and a focused strategy) can help support the stock.

What Could Move Moderna Stock After Earnings?

It’s tempting to assume: “If Moderna beats earnings, the stock goes up.” But markets don’t always work that way. Stocks can fall after a beat if the beat is already priced in, or if guidance disappoints. Zacks itself notes that many stocks drop despite beating earnings when other factors disappoint investors.

Here are the most common post-earnings scenarios for a company like Moderna:

Scenario A: Beat + Strong Guidance = Potential Rally

If Moderna beats the EPS loss estimate and management sounds confident about demand trends, expenses, and pipeline progress, the market could reward the stock with a relief rally.

Scenario B: Beat + Weak Guidance = “Sell the News”

If the quarter is better than expected but guidance suggests tougher quarters ahead, traders may sell, arguing the best news is already out.

Scenario C: Miss + Encouraging Pipeline Update = Mixed Reaction

Sometimes a miss doesn’t crush a stock if investors are more focused on long-term catalysts. A strong pipeline narrative can soften the blow.

Scenario D: Miss + Uncertainty = Steeper Drop

If Moderna misses expectations and management provides vague answers on demand, spending, or timelines, the market may react harshly.

How to Read the Earnings Call Like a Pro (Without Overcomplicating It)

You don’t need to be a biotech analyst to catch the most important signals. If you’re listening to the earnings call or reading highlights, focus on these areas:

1) Guidance Clarity

Do they give specific ranges and assumptions, or do they stay fuzzy? Clarity often builds trust.

2) Demand Commentary

Do they talk about vaccination rates, contracting trends, or season timing? Demand explanations should feel grounded, not hand-wavy.

3) Spending Roadmap

Do they explain how spending supports specific programs, and where efficiencies are coming from?

4) Pipeline Milestones

Look for dates, trial phases, and upcoming data readouts. Milestones are the “receipts” of progress.

Competitive Landscape: Why Moderna’s Earnings Don’t Exist in a Vacuum

Moderna operates in a fast-moving world where competitors can influence pricing, demand, and investor sentiment. In vaccines, competition can reshape the market quickly—especially when products become seasonal and buyers become more price-sensitive.

That’s why investors often compare Moderna’s performance not only to its own past, but also to broader biotech trends and vaccine market dynamics. A quarter that looks “okay” on its own might look stronger if peers are struggling—or weaker if peers are accelerating.

Investor Checklist: 10 Things to Watch on February 13

1. Revenue vs. $661.4M expectation
2. EPS loss vs. -$2.60 expectation
3. Commentary on COVID vaccine demand
4. Any mention of pricing or contracting trends
5. Signals about inventory and supply planning
6. Operating expense trends and efficiency updates
7. Pipeline milestone updates and timelines
8. Risk factors or uncertainties management emphasizes
9. 2026 outlook tone: confident, cautious, or unclear?
10. How analysts react immediately after the call (upgrades/downgrades, estimate changes)

Think of it like a scoreboard: the headline numbers matter, but the “how” and “what’s next” often decide the stock’s direction.

FAQs About Moderna’s Q4 Earnings Report

1) When is Moderna expected to report Q4 earnings?

Zacks-linked coverage indicates Moderna is expected to release its quarterly results on February 13, 2026 for the quarter ended December 2025.

2) What are analysts expecting for Moderna’s revenue?

The Zacks consensus figure cited in the preview is roughly $661.4 million in revenue, which would be down about 31.5% year over year.

3) What is the expected EPS for the quarter?

Analysts are expecting Moderna to post a quarterly loss of about $2.60 per share.

4) Why do people think Moderna might beat earnings expectations?

Zacks points to a positive Earnings ESP (+3.16%) and a Zacks Rank #3 combination as a signal that Moderna is “most likely” to beat the consensus estimate.

5) Has Moderna beaten earnings estimates recently?

Yes. Zacks notes Moderna has beaten consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, including a large surprise in the most recent quarter cited.

6) If Moderna beats earnings, will the stock definitely go up?

No. Stocks sometimes fall after a beat if guidance is weak, if investors expected an even bigger beat, or if management commentary raises new concerns. Zacks also highlights that earnings alone aren’t always the deciding factor for stock moves.

Conclusion: What This Earnings Preview Really Says

Moderna’s upcoming earnings report is set up like a classic earnings-season test: expectations are low, the company has a history of beating, and investors are hungry for a clear plan forward.

If Moderna delivers results above expectations—and pairs them with confident, specific guidance and meaningful pipeline updates—the stock could benefit from renewed optimism. If not, investors may push the company to prove, once again, that its future isn’t just tied to a seasonal COVID market, but to the broader promise of its mRNA platform.

Source reference: This rewritten, original news article is based on publicly available earnings-preview reporting attributed to Zacks Equity Research and distributed on financial news platforms. For context, you can view the related distribution page here: Finviz distribution of the Zacks preview.

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