Job Openings Sink to a Post-Pandemic Low as Hiring Barely Moves

U.S. job openings fell sharply at the end of 2025, dropping to a level not seen since before the pandemic (when you exclude the unusual COVID-era swings). The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) shows a labor market that’s still functioning—but increasingly fragile, with fewer “help wanted” signs, softer demand for workers, and less momentum than Americans got used to earlier in the recovery.

What Happened: The Key Numbers in the Latest JOLTS Report

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), job openings trended down to 6.5 million in December 2025, a monthly drop of 386,000. Compared with a year earlier, openings were down by 966,000. In plain terms: employers posted fewer jobs, and the “extra” demand for workers that defined the post-pandemic boom kept fading.

Other major measures were steadier:

• Hires: about 5.3 million (little changed)
• Total separations: about 5.3 million (little changed)
• Quits: about 3.2 million (unchanged)
• Layoffs and discharges: about 1.8 million (little changed)

So while openings fell noticeably, the “movement” in and out of jobs did not surge—suggesting a cooling market rather than a sudden collapse.

Why This Report Matters: Job Openings Are the Economy’s “Help Wanted” Thermometer

JOLTS is watched closely because it helps answer a simple question: How eager are employers to hire? When openings are high, workers often have more bargaining power—more options, higher pay offers, and a stronger ability to switch jobs. When openings fall, that power slowly shifts back to employers.

In fact, analysts at Indeed’s Hiring Lab noted that openings in December fell to their lowest level since December 2017 (outside the pandemic era). That’s a big deal because it suggests the job market has cooled far enough to look “pre-boom normal” again—except the broader economy is now dealing with different pressures like higher interest rates and tighter budgets.

Which Industries Got Hit: Where Openings Fell the Most

The declines weren’t evenly spread. The BLS report showed the biggest monthly drops in:

• Professional and business services: down 257,000
• Retail trade: down 195,000
• Finance and insurance: down 120,000

These categories matter because they represent a wide slice of “everyday” economic activity—from office and consulting work, to stores and shopping, to lending and financial services. When these sectors pull back on openings, it can signal that businesses are becoming more cautious about growth.

Professional and Business Services: A Confidence Indicator

Professional and business services often expands when companies feel optimistic—hiring consultants, accountants, legal support, and administrative services. A large decline in openings here can hint that companies are watching costs more carefully and delaying expansion plans.

Retail: A Window Into Consumer Demand

Retail openings can move with consumer spending. If retailers expect weaker sales, they may reduce staffing plans. A drop in retail openings can also reflect tighter household budgets, a shift to more cautious spending, or simply the end of seasonal hiring.

Finance and Insurance: Sensitive to Interest Rates

Finance is highly sensitive to interest rates and credit conditions. When borrowing slows or refinancing becomes less attractive, companies may need fewer staff—especially in lending, underwriting, and related services.

“Barely Adding Any New Jobs”: What That Phrase Really Means

When people say the economy is “barely adding any new jobs,” they’re usually combining a few signals:

• Fewer job openings (less demand for new workers)
• Steady hires that aren’t rising (employers aren’t accelerating)
• Lower churn (workers less likely to quit; employers less likely to expand quickly)

In December, hires stayed around 5.3 million—not collapsing, but not strengthening either. That’s the “stuck in neutral” feeling: the labor market is still moving, just not powering forward.

The “Quit Rate” Stayed Flat: A Big Clue About Worker Confidence

During the “Great Resignation,” quits were a headline because people were leaving jobs confidently—often for better pay. In December 2025, quits were unchanged at 3.2 million, and the quits rate held at 2.0%. That level is lower than the hottest post-pandemic period and, importantly, it suggests workers are less certain they can quickly land something better.

Indeed’s Hiring Lab highlighted that the quits rate remains below its 2019 average—another sign that workers are behaving more cautiously than in the boom times.

Layoffs Didn’t Spike—But That Doesn’t Mean Everything’s Fine

The BLS reported layoffs and discharges were little changed at 1.8 million, with a 1.1% layoff rate. On the surface, that’s reassuring: a falling-openings story is less scary when layoffs aren’t exploding.

But there’s a catch: labor markets can weaken in stages. Often, businesses first freeze hiring and cut job postings. If demand worsens later, layoffs can follow. So a low layoff rate today doesn’t guarantee the next few months will stay calm—it simply means employers haven’t hit the panic button yet.

A Hidden Warning Sign: The Gap Between Unemployed People and Available Jobs

One of the most telling interpretations came from Hiring Lab: by the end of 2025, there were almost 1 million more unemployed people than available jobs (based on the December JOLTS data), creating the widest gap outside of the pandemic since 2017. That kind of mismatch can make job searches harder and wage growth slower, especially for people trying to enter or re-enter the workforce.

Why Job Openings Fell: The Most Likely Drivers

1) Businesses Are Managing Costs More Strictly

When interest rates are higher and growth feels uncertain, companies often shift from “expand aggressively” to “protect margins.” Reducing job postings is one of the easiest ways to slow spending without immediately cutting current staff.

2) The Hiring “Catch-Up” Phase Is Over

After the pandemic, many industries were playing catch-up—restaffing after disruptions and rebuilding capacity. Over time, that urgency naturally fades.

3) Consumers Have Become More Careful

Retail openings fell notably in December. If shoppers buy less or trade down to cheaper options, companies may plan for fewer workers.

4) Policy and Government Operations Can Affect Data Timing

In early February 2026, the U.S. experienced a partial federal government shutdown that affected the timing of some labor statistics releases. The BLS indicated that some data collection and dissemination could be suspended during the shutdown, which added extra attention to whichever reports did come out on time.

What This Means for Everyday People

For Job Seekers

Expect a more competitive environment than in 2021–2023. With fewer openings, companies can be pickier, and hiring cycles may take longer. That doesn’t mean “no jobs”—it means you’ll likely need a stronger application strategy and more patience.

For Workers Who Already Have Jobs

A steady quits rate suggests many workers are choosing stability. If you’re employed, this can be a moment to build skills, document accomplishments, and strengthen relationships—so you’re ready if conditions shift later.

For Pay and Raises

When openings fall, wage pressure often eases. Employers don’t need to bid as aggressively for talent if there are fewer open roles and more applicants per posting.

What This Means for the Federal Reserve and Interest Rates

JOLTS data has become part of the broader conversation about inflation and monetary policy. A cooler labor market can reduce wage growth pressure, which can help lower inflation over time. That’s why investors and economists watch job openings closely: they can hint at whether the economy is still “too hot,” “just right,” or sliding toward weakness.

Still, one report doesn’t decide policy. The Fed typically looks at many indicators—employment, inflation, wages, spending, and financial conditions—before making major moves.

How to Read JOLTS Like a Pro (Without Getting Lost)

Here’s a simple way to interpret the report:

• Openings falling + layoffs stable = cooling (often the early stage of weakness)
• Openings falling + hires falling = slowing demand (more concerning)
• Openings falling + layoffs rising = contraction risk (most concerning)
• Quits rising = workers confident
• Quits falling = workers cautious

December 2025 looks most like the first pattern: cooling, not collapsing.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

1) What is the JOLTS report?

JOLTS stands for the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It tracks job openings, hires, quits, layoffs, and other separations across the U.S. economy each month, published by the BLS.

2) How many job openings were there in December 2025?

The BLS reported 6.5 million job openings in December 2025, down 386,000 from the prior month and down 966,000 over the year.

3) Does fewer job openings mean a recession is coming?

Not automatically. Falling openings can signal cooling. Recessions usually involve broader weakness, such as rising layoffs, falling consumer spending, and sustained drops in hiring. December’s data show cooling, but layoffs were not surging.

4) Why do economists care about the quits rate?

The quits rate is a common proxy for worker confidence. When people voluntarily leave jobs more often, it suggests they believe they can find better opportunities. In December, quits were unchanged and the quits rate held at 2.0%, which points to caution rather than bold confidence.

5) Which industries saw the largest drop in openings?

Openings fell most in professional and business services, retail trade, and finance and insurance, based on the BLS breakdown.

6) Where can I find the official data?

You can read the official release on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics JOLTS page and news release.

Conclusion: A Cooler Labor Market, Not a Crash—Yet

The latest JOLTS report shows the U.S. job market is losing altitude. Job openings dropped to 6.5 million, the lowest level in years outside the pandemic era. At the same time, hiring and separations were mostly steady, quits stayed flat, and layoffs did not spike—painting a picture of an economy that’s cooling and cautious rather than one that’s already breaking.

For workers and job seekers, the message is straightforward: the “easy mode” job market is fading. Opportunities still exist, but competition is rising, and stability is becoming the new priority. The next few reports will matter a lot—especially if falling openings begin to pull hiring down or push layoffs up.

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