Here’s the Message to Draw From the S&P 500 Falling Below the 50‑Day Average for the First Time in 139 Sessions

The S&P 500 recently closed beneath its 50‑day moving average for the first time in 139 trading sessions—a development that has triggered analysis of what such technical breaks imply. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has crossed below its 50‑day average some 579 times, and each time the median 12‑month return—excluding dividends—has been about 8.45 %. When factoring in the current dividend yield of roughly 1.2 %, the average total return climbs close to the long‑term annual equity return of around 9.7 %. In situations where the S&P 500 had already climbed at least 10% in the prior 12 months (similar to its current ~13% gain), the subsequent 12‑month median return falls slightly to 8.2 %. In comparison, the Nasdaq 100, under similar conditions of breaking its 50‑day average and preceding gains, has logged a higher median return of 14.9% over the next year. In short: while the drop below the 50‑day moving average may feel alarming, the data suggest this event is relatively routine and historically does not guarantee a major market decline. Investors might view it as a normal ebb in market rhythm rather than a flashing red light. #SP500 #StockMarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis #MovingAverageBreak #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM