
Goldman Sachs Forecasts Lower Oil Prices in 2026 as Global Supply Swells
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Goldman Sachs has projected that global oil prices will likely decline throughout 2026 due to a significant increase in oil supply that is expected to create a market surplus, according to the investment bank’s latest outlook. The firm reaffirmed its 2026 average price forecasts at about $56 per barrel for Brent crude and $52 per barrel for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with prices expected to dip to roughly $54/$50 in the final quarter as inventories in OECD countries build up.
Goldman analysts said the anticipated 2.3 million barrels‑per‑day surplus next year could put downward pressure on prices, highlighting that rebalancing the market would require lower prices to slow non‑OPEC supply growth and support stronger demand, barring major disruptions or OPEC output cuts.
Despite volatile geopolitical risks tied to countries like Russia, Venezuela and Iran, Goldman sees limited upside for oil in 2026 and maintained that no significant production cuts from OPEC are expected. The bank also projected a gradual price recovery starting in 2027, with Brent/WTI averaging $58/$54 as non‑OPEC supply slows and demand strengthens.
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