Eli Lilly shares jump after a big Q4 beat and an even bigger 2026 forecast

Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE: LLY) grabbed Wall Street’s attention after reporting a strong fourth quarter and issuing a confident outlook for 2026. In early trading on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, the stock surged about 9.5% as investors reacted to results that topped expectations and highlighted booming demand for the company’s blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes medicines. Mounjaro and Zepbound were the clear stars, posting year-over-year sales growth that helped push revenue sharply higher and reinforced the company’s leadership in the fast-growing GLP-1 market.

Below is a detailed, easy-to-follow breakdown of what happened, what the numbers mean, why the stock moved, and what investors may watch next.

Market reaction: why the stock popped so fast

When a company beats expectations and raises the bar for the future, the market often responds immediately. That’s exactly what happened here. Eli Lilly delivered a quarter that beat consensus estimates on both revenue and profit, then followed it with 2026 guidance that came in above what analysts were modeling. That combination—strong execution now plus a stronger roadmap ahead—can be a powerful catalyst for a rally.

In this case, investors were especially focused on two things:

• Demand momentum for Mounjaro and Zepbound, which continues to scale rapidly.
• Forward guidance suggesting the company believes it can sustain high growth into 2026.

That’s why the stock’s move wasn’t just a mild bump. It was a sharp jump that signaled renewed confidence that Lilly’s weight-loss franchise can keep delivering at a massive scale.

Top-line performance: revenue rises 43% year over year

Eli Lilly reported fourth-quarter revenue of $19.29 billion, representing 43% growth from the same period a year earlier. Analysts were expecting about $18.01 billion, so the company came in well ahead of estimates. This kind of upside matters because it shows demand strength is not only real—it’s also arriving faster than many forecasts assumed.

Revenue growth like this, especially at Lilly’s size, is a sign of exceptional commercial execution and product pull-through. It also helps confirm that GLP-1 demand is not a short-lived trend. Instead, it appears to be a durable, expanding market that’s still in a major growth phase.

Bottom-line performance: adjusted EPS climbs 42%

On profitability, Lilly reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $7.54, up 42% year over year. Wall Street was looking for about $6.99, meaning the company beat profit expectations as well.

A revenue beat is nice, but an EPS beat can be even more important because it shows the company is converting growth into earnings. That matters for long-term investors, since strong earnings can support continued investment in R&D while also reinforcing valuation confidence.

The main drivers: Mounjaro and Zepbound dominate the story

It’s hard to overstate the impact of Lilly’s incretin franchise right now. The company’s fourth-quarter growth was largely driven by demand for its weight-loss and diabetes products, particularly Mounjaro and Zepbound. Their sales growth was not just strong—it was explosive.

Mounjaro: $7.41 billion, up 110%

Mounjaro generated $7.41 billion in quarterly sales, representing 110% year-over-year growth. This indicates significant adoption, continued patient demand, and expanding reach.

For investors, the key takeaway is that Mounjaro remains a major growth engine even as it scales. Many products grow quickly early on but slow sharply as they get bigger. Mounjaro is getting bigger and still accelerating at a pace that’s hard to ignore.

Zepbound: $4.26 billion, up 123%

Zepbound delivered $4.26 billion in sales, up 123% from the prior year’s quarter. This result highlights the size of the obesity market and the pace at which demand is converting into revenue.

Importantly, both Mounjaro and Zepbound came in above consensus expectations. That’s meaningful because analysts typically model strong growth for these products already. Beating those models suggests the market may still be underestimating near-term demand strength.

Management commentary: volume growth is doing the heavy lifting

In its messaging, the company pointed directly to volume growth as the biggest factor behind the quarter’s performance. Lilly stated that revenue increased 43% to about $19.3 billion in Q4 2025, driven by volume growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound. In simple terms: more patients are using these medicines, and that is translating into major sales expansion.

That’s a crucial point because volume-driven growth is often viewed as higher quality than growth driven mainly by one-off factors. Volume suggests real-world adoption, expanding access, and a growing base that can generate recurring demand.

2026 guidance: the forecast that fueled the rally

If the Q4 results sparked interest, the 2026 guidance likely poured fuel on the fire. Lilly issued a full-year 2026 outlook that came in above what analysts were expecting.

• Projected 2026 revenue: $80 billion to $83 billion
• Projected 2026 non-GAAP EPS: $33.50 to $35.00

Analysts had been looking for roughly $77.7 billion in revenue and about $33.24 in EPS. By guiding above both, Lilly effectively told the market: “We believe the momentum is strong enough to keep outperforming.”

Guidance like this can matter just as much as current results because the stock market is forward-looking. A company’s future cash flows and earnings power are a big part of what drives valuation. So when guidance steps higher, it can justify a higher share price—especially in a sector where growth visibility is highly prized.

Margins and spending: what the cost structure says about scalability

Lilly also reported key operating metrics that provide insight into how scalable its growth may be.

• Gross margin: 82.5%
• Non-GAAP gross margin: 83.2%
• R&D expenses: $3.8 billion
• Marketing, selling, and administrative costs: $3.1 billion

A gross margin above 80% is a strong figure that suggests Lilly is producing high-value medicines with robust pricing and manufacturing efficiency. While pharma margins can vary product-by-product, this level supports the argument that Lilly can continue investing heavily in research while maintaining strong profitability.

R&D spending at $3.8 billion also signals that Lilly is not taking its foot off the innovation pedal. That matters because leadership in obesity and diabetes isn’t just about today’s drugs. It’s also about next-generation treatments, new delivery formats, broader indications, and pipeline expansion.

Why weight-loss drugs are reshaping the healthcare market

Obesity is not just a cosmetic issue—it’s a major health condition linked to diabetes, heart disease, sleep apnea, and other serious outcomes. As more healthcare systems treat obesity as a chronic condition with medical solutions, demand for effective therapies can expand dramatically.

GLP-1 medicines have become some of the most talked-about drugs in the world because they can help with meaningful weight reduction while also supporting metabolic health in many patients. That combination has transformed the competitive landscape, pushing drugmakers to invest heavily in:

• New obesity and diabetes treatments
• Higher manufacturing capacity
• Access programs and pricing strategies
• Clinical trials for additional uses

In this environment, Lilly’s ability to show both explosive demand and strong profit conversion is a big reason investors are paying close attention.

Competitive context: what investors may compare next

Even with a strong report, Lilly operates in a competitive arena. Weight-loss and diabetes are enormous markets, and other major companies are fighting for share. Investors commonly watch:

• Market share trends between leading GLP-1 players
• Manufacturing capacity and supply constraints
• Pricing and reimbursement developments, especially in the US
• Pipeline progress for next-generation obesity medicines

For Lilly, the major near- and mid-term question is whether the company can continue scaling supply while maintaining strong margins and broad access. Demand is powerful, but meeting that demand smoothly can make a huge difference in long-run results.

What this could mean for long-term shareholders

From a long-term perspective, this quarter delivered several positive signals:

• Proof of demand: Mounjaro and Zepbound are scaling rapidly.
• Execution strength: Results exceeded expectations on revenue and EPS.
• Confidence: 2026 guidance came in above consensus forecasts.
• Investment in the future: R&D spending remains substantial.

However, long-term shareholders also tend to watch risk factors carefully. In a high-growth drug category, a few common pressure points can emerge, such as manufacturing bottlenecks, policy changes around pricing, and competitive innovation. A strong quarter doesn’t remove these risks, but it can give the market more confidence that the company is well positioned to manage them.

Key numbers recap (quick table)

Metric	Reported	Year-over-year change	Market expectation (approx.)
Q4 Revenue	$19.29B	+43%	$18.01B
Adjusted EPS	$7.54	+42%	$6.99
Mounjaro sales	$7.41B	+110%	Above consensus
Zepbound sales	$4.26B	+123%	Above consensus
2026 Revenue guidance	$80B–$83B	N/A	$77.7B
2026 EPS guidance (non-GAAP)	$33.50–$35.00	N/A	$33.24

External reference: where to read the company’s official release

For readers who want the full official statement and supporting details, Lilly’s investor relations site and the PR distribution version of the release are good primary sources. You can review the official announcement here:Lilly reports fourth-quarter 2025 financial results and provides 2026 guidance.

FAQs (Frequently Asked Questions)

1) Why did Eli Lilly stock rise so sharply after the earnings report?

The stock jumped because Lilly beat expectations on revenue and adjusted EPS, and it also issued 2026 guidance above analyst forecasts. Strong sales growth from Mounjaro and Zepbound added confidence that demand remains powerful.

2) How much did Eli Lilly make in Q4 revenue?

Lilly reported about $19.29 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, which was up 43% year over year and above Wall Street estimates.

3) What were the standout products in the quarter?

The standout products were Mounjaro and Zepbound. Mounjaro posted $7.41 billion in sales (up 110%), and Zepbound posted $4.26 billion (up 123%).

4) What is Eli Lilly forecasting for 2026?

Lilly guided to $80 billion to $83 billion in revenue for 2026 and $33.50 to $35.00 in non-GAAP EPS, which was above consensus expectations.

5) Are margins still strong even with rapid growth?

Yes. Lilly reported a gross margin of 82.5% and a non-GAAP gross margin of 83.2%, indicating strong profitability while the business scales.

6) What should investors watch going forward?

Common areas to watch include supply expansion, pricing and reimbursement trends, competitive developments in GLP-1 therapies, and updates on Lilly’s pipeline and new indications.

Conclusion: a “beat + raise” moment with massive demand behind it

Eli Lilly’s latest quarter delivered what markets love most: strong current performance and a confident forecast. With revenue up 43%, adjusted EPS up 42%, and blockbuster products driving explosive growth, the company reinforced its position at the center of one of healthcare’s biggest growth stories.

Just as importantly, the company’s 2026 guidance—$80–$83 billion in revenue and $33.50–$35.00 in non-GAAP EPS—suggests management believes the momentum can continue. While competitive and policy risks always exist in large drug markets, this report strengthened the case that Lilly is executing at a high level and scaling demand into earnings.

In short: the quarter didn’t just meet expectations—it reset them higher.

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