Analysts Update Nvidia Stock Price Target Ahead of Feb. 25 Earnings: Fresh “Buy” Calls, Wide Upside Range, and Key Risks to Watch

With Nvidia’s next earnings report scheduled for February 25, Wall Street analysts have been busy refreshing their 12-month outlook for Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA). In a wave of updates issued on Monday, February 23, multiple institutions reiterated or adjusted their expectations—while still keeping a broadly optimistic stance.

According to Finbold’s recap of analyst notes pulled from TipRanks data, seven institutional analysts published new ratings and price targets in the latest round—and all of them were bullish, assigning a form of “Buy” rating.

Even with near-universal optimism, the spread between the most conservative and most aggressive targets highlights an important reality: expectations are high, but investors remain divided on how much upside is left—and how much volatility could show up around the earnings release.

What’s New: A Cluster of Higher Targets, with $275 at the Top End

In the most optimistic corner, KeyBanc’s John Vinh and Bank of America’s Vivek Arya were the boldest in this batch of updates, each setting a 12-month price target of $275 for Nvidia shares.

On the other end of the range, Wedbush’s Dan Ives—often known for big conviction calls on major technology names—issued the lowest target among the February 23 updates, placing his 12-month view at $230.

Between those poles, several firms landed in the middle. JPMorgan, D.A. Davidson, and Aletheia Capital each projected Nvidia could reach $250 over the next year, taking what Finbold described as the “middle road.”

Where NVDA Was Trading—and What That Implies for Upside

At the time of Finbold’s report, Nvidia shares were quoted at about $189.88 on February 24. With that as the baseline, the updated analyst targets implied potential upside ranging from roughly 21% (to $230) to nearly 45% (to $275), depending on which forecast an investor believes is most realistic.

That’s a meaningful gap. In plain terms, it suggests analysts broadly agree Nvidia remains positioned to benefit from the artificial intelligence boom—but they disagree on how much of that future growth is already reflected in the current price, and how smoothly the company can deliver results quarter after quarter.

A Key Quote Worth Noticing: “Not a Bellwether Anymore”—But Still Undervalued?

One of the most nuanced takes in the roundup came from D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria. Even while maintaining a “Buy” rating and a $250 target, Luria reportedly offered a mixed message: he argued Nvidia is “not a bellwether anymore” and suggested the market may be shifting attention toward other names within the AI ecosystem.

In the same commentary, Luria explicitly pointed to other potential “favorites” in the AI trade, including Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), plus “memory chips and optical companies.”

Still, the bullish conclusion remained: Luria supported his price target by arguing investors may not have fully priced in the peak in AI demand expected in 2026.

Why this matters: It’s a reminder that a “Buy” rating doesn’t always mean “everything is perfect.” Sometimes, it means “the stock can go higher even if leadership rotates within the sector.” For investors, that difference is huge, because sector rotation can create sharp swings—especially around earnings.

Big Picture: Wall Street’s Overall Rating Remains Strong

Zooming out beyond the February 23 updates, Finbold noted that Nvidia was broadly seen as a “Strong Buy” based on recent analyst coverage. The report added that, in the last three months, only one analyst rated NVDA as a “Sell”, none rated it a “Hold”, and the average price target stood around $267.14 as of February 24.

That kind of consensus—especially the absence of “Hold” ratings—signals unusually high conviction. But it can also raise the bar for earnings: when expectations are crowded on the bullish side, the stock price may react strongly if results are merely “good” rather than “great.”

Why Earnings Season Can Still Be a Minefield for NVDA

Finbold also emphasized a caution investors often learn the hard way: even when fundamentals look strong and analysts stay positive, price action after earnings can be unpredictable. In the report, Finbold noted that despite Nvidia’s broader pattern of beating expert forecasts, NVDA shares declined after three out of the last four quarterly reports.

That point is especially important for traders. A stock can post strong numbers, beat estimates, and still fall if:

• Guidance doesn’t exceed already-high expectations
• Margins compress slightly
• Revenue mix shifts in a way investors don’t like
• Management tone suggests demand is normalizing
• One customer slows purchases, even temporarily

So while updated price targets create a bullish narrative, the near-term question is more tactical: Will Nvidia’s Feb. 25 earnings release justify the market’s confidence—right now?

Customer Concentration: The “Hidden” Risk Investors Keep Revisiting

Another risk flagged in Finbold’s piece relates to customer concentration. The report referenced August disclosures indicating Nvidia’s top three clients account for about half of the company’s volume, a level of concentration that could become uncomfortable if the AI cycle cools or if a major buyer shifts strategy.

Customer concentration isn’t automatically bad—many highly successful enterprise companies have large buyers. But it can raise “single point of failure” concerns. If one major customer delays orders, negotiates harder on pricing, or builds more in-house capability, the market may react quickly—sometimes faster than the underlying business impact would justify.

That’s why investors often listen closely on the earnings call for clues about:

• How diversified demand is across industries and regions
• Whether order patterns are steady or lumpy
• How strong backlog and visibility appear for the next several quarters

Microsoft, OpenAI, and the AI Spending Narrative

Finbold also linked Nvidia’s potential headwinds to the broader market’s sensitivity around AI spending. The report pointed to the market reaction when Microsoft disclosed substantial dependence on the future trajectory of OpenAI, suggesting Nvidia could face similar scrutiny if investors remain worried about “AI weariness” and whether spending is becoming too concentrated.

In other words, the market isn’t just tracking Nvidia’s results—it’s tracking what Nvidia’s results imply about the health of the overall AI buildout. If Nvidia’s commentary supports the idea that demand remains strong and broad-based, that can boost confidence across the sector. If commentary hints that orders are narrowing to fewer buyers or that growth is normalizing faster than expected, the market may reprice not only Nvidia, but other AI-linked names too.

What Investors Will Likely Watch Most on Feb. 25

While analyst targets focus on where a stock might trade in 12 months, earnings can reshape that path overnight. Here are the themes investors commonly focus on during a major AI hardware leader’s earnings—especially when valuation and expectations are elevated:

1) Forward Guidance and Demand Visibility

Wall Street typically reacts more to what’s next than to what just happened. Strong reported results can be overshadowed if management signals slower growth, less visibility, or more uneven ordering patterns.

2) Data Center Momentum

Nvidia’s AI narrative is closely tied to data center demand. Investors will listen for signals about continued infrastructure buildouts, customer mix, and whether spending is expanding beyond a small group of mega-buyers.

3) Margins and Supply Dynamics

Margins can act like a “truth meter” for pricing power. If demand is strong and supply is tight, pricing and margins tend to look healthy. If competition rises or mix shifts, margins can get noisy—even if revenue remains strong.

4) Competitive Landscape

Competition doesn’t have to “win” to matter. Even incremental shifts—like customers testing alternatives—can influence sentiment and valuation. This is especially relevant if investors believe the market is picking “new favorites,” as one analyst suggested.

Why Price Targets Can Rise Even When Risks Increase

It might sound strange, but price targets can go up at the same time risk discussion increases. Here’s why:

• Analysts may believe the long-term trend is intact even if short-term volatility is likely.
• Targets can reflect a 12-month horizon, while risks like earnings volatility are more immediate.
• Institutional models can price in higher earnings power even as they acknowledge concentration or sentiment risks.

That seems consistent with what the February 23 updates show: the group stayed positive with “Buy” ratings, yet commentary and the range of targets hint at real debate over how smooth the next leg higher will be.

A Practical Takeaway for Readers

If you’re following Nvidia into earnings, the key takeaway from this analyst refresh is simple:

Nvidia remains one of Wall Street’s most widely supported large-cap tech names, but expectations are high, the upside targets vary, and short-term reactions can be harsh—even on good news.

That doesn’t mean the bullish case is wrong. It means the market is likely to be sensitive to details: guidance, demand concentration, and what Nvidia’s results suggest about the durability of AI infrastructure spending through 2026.

Source and Further Reading

This rewritten report is based on Finbold’s article published February 24, 2026. You can read the original context and referenced links (including TipRanks/Nasdaq references) here:

Finbold – Analysts update Nvidia stock price target

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Markets involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results.

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