American Bank Morgan Stanley Predicts Venezuelan Crude Exports Could Double

Morgan Stanley has released a new analysis assessing how Venezuela’s evolving political landscape might impact global oil markets, particularly crude export volumes and pricing dynamics. The US-based investment bank noted that in 2025 Venezuela produced around 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, exporting approximately 800,000 bpd, with China as its biggest customer and the United States receiving about 140,000 bpd under existing arrangements. In the short term, Morgan Stanley predicts only modest changes in output, including a rebound of roughly 200,000 bpd from volumes previously lost due to a recent US blockade on sanctioned tankers. However, if sanctions are significantly eased, the bank believes that repairs and well workovers could push Venezuelan export capacity up by at least 300,000–400,000 bpd over the next 12–18 months — with some industry consultants forecasting even higher gains. Strategically, the bank argues that a surge in Venezuela’s heavy crude supply could benefit US coastal refiners by widening pricing differentials between light and heavy crudes, naming Valero and Marathon Petroleum as particularly exposed players. Conversely, more heavy crude on the market could exert pressure on other producers, especially Canadian oil sands producers, if Western Canadian Select (WCS) discounts widen — although Chevron is seen as relatively well‑positioned due to its existing Venezuelan business footprint. #VenezuelaOil #MorganStanley #CrudeExports #GlobalEnergyMarkets #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM