Airbnb Growth Outlook Strengthens as Jefferies Sees Hotels and Experiences Adding Billions by 2030

Airbnb Inc. could see a major revenue boost by the end of the decade as the company expands beyond home rentals into hotels, travel experiences, and new host-and-guest services, according to estimates from Jefferies.

Jefferies reiterated a Buy rating on Airbnb, saying the company’s newer business lines may help it sustain double-digit revenue growth through 2030. The firm believes Airbnb’s push into independent hotels, curated experiences, and higher take rates could each add around one percentage point to annual revenue growth between 2025 and 2030.

Hotels Become a Key Growth Driver

Airbnb began integrating independent hotels into its platform last year, first launching the feature in three markets before expanding it to roughly 20 markets. Jefferies said this move gives Airbnb a stronger way to serve travelers whose needs may not always fit traditional home rentals.

These include customers booking one-night stays, business trips, last-minute travel, and visits to locations where rental supply becomes limited during busy seasons.

Jefferies estimates Airbnb’s share of online bookings for independent hotels could rise from about 1% today to 3.5% by 2030. That growth could add around $1 billion to Airbnb’s 2030 revenue.

Experiences Could Add Another Major Revenue Stream

Jefferies also sees strong potential in Airbnb’s travel experiences business. The firm noted that travelers often communicate with hosts before arrival, creating a natural chance for Airbnb to cross-sell local activities, tours, classes, and other experiences.

The global travel experiences market is estimated at around $280 billion. However, only about $80 billion of that spending is currently booked online. By comparison, lodging has a much higher online penetration rate of around 65%.

Jefferies expects online experience bookings to grow to about $150 billion by 2030. It also sees Airbnb’s share of that market rising from 1.5% to 3%, potentially adding about $800 million to Airbnb’s 2030 revenue.

Take Rate Expansion Offers Another Path

A third growth opportunity comes from Airbnb’s ability to increase its take rate, or the percentage of booking value it keeps as revenue. Jefferies believes improved services for hosts and guests could lift Airbnb’s take rate by around 75 basis points by 2030.

One area highlighted by the analysts is a broader travel insurance offering. If Airbnb successfully expands these value-added services, Jefferies estimates the company could generate about $1.3 billion in additional 2030 revenue.

Sponsored Listings Seen as Upside Scenario

Jefferies also pointed to sponsored listings as a possible larger opportunity. Sponsored listings would allow hosts or hotel partners to pay for better visibility on Airbnb’s platform.

The firm estimates this product could add roughly 300 basis points to Airbnb’s take rate within five years of launch and could contribute about $4.5 billion in revenue based on 2030 bookings.

However, Jefferies has moved sponsored listings out of its base-case forecast and into an upside scenario. The analysts said Airbnb appears more focused on recently launched products in the near term, making a quick rollout of sponsored listings less certain.

Jefferies Raises Long-Term Estimates

Jefferies raised its 2027 gross booking value and EBITDA estimates for Airbnb to 1% and 2% above Wall Street consensus, respectively. The firm said this reflects greater confidence in Airbnb’s ability to keep growing as newer products scale.

The analysts also said the sponsored listings opportunity supports a possible upside price target of $250, with a 3.5-to-1 risk-reward profile.

Why This Matters for Airbnb

Airbnb built its brand by changing how people book short-term stays. But as competition rises in travel and lodging, the company is now looking for new ways to grow. Hotels, experiences, travel insurance, and other services could make Airbnb a broader travel marketplace rather than only a home-rental platform.

This strategy may also help Airbnb capture more types of travelers. Business travelers, short-stay guests, and last-minute customers may prefer hotels in some situations, while leisure travelers may be interested in booking experiences alongside accommodation.

If Jefferies’ estimates prove accurate, these newer business areas could become an important part of Airbnb’s long-term revenue story and help the company maintain stronger growth through 2030.

Source: Proactive Investors reported the Jefferies estimates and Airbnb outlook on June 5, 2026.

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