A Tale of Two Holiday Seasons in the US Economy

The 2025 holiday season in the U.S. is shaping up to be a story of stark contrasts — with affluent Americans splurging, while the majority pull back. For those in high‑income brackets, especially in places like New York, Boston, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, rising wages (up 4.5–6.7%) and a strong stock market (up over 13 % this year) are cushioning them and encouraging spending on luxuries like fine dining, vacations, and high‑end gifts. Meanwhile, most Americans — especially blue‑collar and middle‑income households — are feeling the squeeze. Hourly wages for blue‑collar workers have risen only modestly (~2.58 %), and inflation, debt, rent, and job uncertainty (exacerbated by layoffs and technology-driven shifts) are limiting their ability to spend. Retail analysts expect U.S. holiday sales to grow by 2.9 %–4 % this year, but when adjusted for inflation, actual consumer spending may be flat. As a result, while luxury retailers and businesses targeting wealthy consumers will likely see a healthy season, small businesses — especially those outside affluent areas or targeting average earners — may struggle. Holiday revenues often make up half of their yearly income, so weak consumer demand could hit them hard. #USholiday2025 #EconomicDivide #ConsumerSpending #RetailOutlook #SlimScan #GrowthStocks #CANSLIM