These Stocks Could Be Big Winners From Trump’s “Populism” Push, According to Citi

President Donald Trump has been talking up “populism” and “affordability” themes, and that’s pushing investors to hunt for winners. But according to Citi analysts, many traders may be looking in the wrong place. Instead of focusing mostly on traditional consumer stocks (like retailers), Citi says the more interesting opportunity could be in fintech—companies that use technology to deliver banking, payments, lending, and financial tools in a faster and often cheaper way.

This article rewrites and expands the key ideas from the Citi view: what “populism” policies could mean for everyday spending power, why fintech might benefit more than many people expect, and which public companies Citi highlighted across fintech, crypto, lending, and small-business software.

Why Citi Thinks Investors Might Be “Shopping in the Wrong Aisle”

When people hear “populism” or “affordability,” they often jump straight to consumer-facing companies—discount chains, apparel stores, restaurants, and big-box retailers. The logic is simple: if people have more money left at the end of the month, they spend more.

Citi doesn’t fully disagree with that idea. But the bank argues something important: if policy changes improve consumer finances—by lowering certain costs or reshaping credit—then financial platforms that help people pay, borrow, manage money, and run businesses could see a powerful ripple effect. In Citi’s view, fintech firms can “monetize simplification” by making financial actions easier and more transparent than older systems.

In other words, if rules and incentives nudge the economy toward simpler, clearer, more digital finance, the big beneficiaries may be the companies already built for that world.

What “Populism Push” Means in Practical Policy Terms

“Populism” can mean different things to different people, so it helps to translate it into the types of proposals Citi mentioned. The report pointed to several policy directions tied to affordability and consumer support, including:

A proposed one-year cap on credit-card interest rates (which could change how revolving credit works for consumers).
Limits on institutional home purchases (which could affect housing supply/demand dynamics and home affordability).
Expanded small-business tax credits (which could support new business formation and growth).

Citi’s big “if” is whether such measures actually pass, how they’re implemented, and whether they work as intended. But the firm’s market thesis is about incentives and direction: even partial moves toward these ideas may shift consumer behavior and business activity—and create winners in financial technology.

Why Fintech Could Be the Surprise Winner

Fintech isn’t just a buzzword. It’s a wide category that includes:

Payments tools (for people and for businesses)
Buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services
Digital banking and money apps
Business invoicing and expense tools
Modern lending platforms and credit models
Crypto exchanges and stablecoin infrastructure

Citi’s argument is that many fintech firms are designed around speed, transparency, and embedded services—meaning financial tools are built directly into the places people already shop, sell, or manage money. That can displace older, more expensive workflows run by banks, card networks, or manual processes.

So if policymakers push ideas that reward clearer pricing, consumer protection, faster digital adoption, or small-business formation, fintech platforms may be positioned to capture more users and more transactions.

Fintech Stocks Citi Highlighted (Payments, BNPL, and Business Tools)

1) Block (Cash App, Afterpay, Square)

Citi highlighted Block as a key name because it sits at the intersection of consumer finance and small business. On the consumer side, Cash App is a major money and payments app. Block also owns Afterpay, a buy-now-pay-later offering. On the business side, Square provides tools that help merchants accept payments and manage sales.

Citi’s angle is that if policies support more spending power—or encourage small-business creation—Block could benefit from more activity on both sides of its platform (people transacting and businesses selling).

2) Affirm (Buy-Now-Pay-Later)

Affirm is a major BNPL company. Citi noted that BNPL products can appeal to consumers who may be underserved by traditional credit options—sometimes described as “underbanked.” If credit-card pricing or rules change, consumers may look harder at alternatives that feel more straightforward at checkout (for example, fixed payment schedules rather than open-ended revolving balances).

3) Klarna (Buy-Now-Pay-Later)

Citi also mentioned Klarna as part of the BNPL theme. The core concept is similar: BNPL can grow when shoppers want predictable payments and a simpler experience, especially if broader policy discussions increase attention on fairness, transparency, and affordability in consumer finance.

4) Toast (Point of Sale + Restaurant Software)

Toast focuses heavily on restaurants and hospitality. It offers point-of-sale systems and software that can simplify ordering, payments, and operations. If small-business incentives expand—or if consumer spending improves—restaurants may see higher volume, and platforms that run the “plumbing” of that volume can benefit through subscription and transaction revenue.

5) Bill Holdings (Back-Office Automation for SMBs)

Bill Holdings (often called BILL) provides tools for invoices, bill pay, and other back-office tasks. Citi included it because if new-business formation rises, or if existing small businesses become more financially confident, they may invest more in software that saves time and reduces errors.

How “Consumer Strength” Can Flow Into Fintech Revenue

It’s tempting to think fintech only wins when people are struggling. In reality, fintech companies can benefit in several different economic moods:

When consumers feel stronger, they transact more, pay on time more often, and may qualify for better financial products.
When small businesses feel stronger, they hire, expand, buy software, and process more payments.
When regulation shifts, platforms built for transparency and digital onboarding can gain share from older systems.

Citi’s point is that a “populism” agenda—if it results in real affordability improvements—could support exactly these behaviors.

Crypto and Digital Asset Stocks Citi Highlighted

Citi also pointed to a separate bucket: digital assets. The big story here isn’t just price movement. It’s legitimacy through regulation—clearer rules can reduce uncertainty, attract more institutional adoption, and increase participation from mainstream users and businesses.

6) Coinbase

Coinbase was cited as a potential beneficiary of a regulatory environment that clarifies how digital assets are treated. When rules are clearer, large financial players may feel more comfortable entering the market, which can increase trading, custody, and other services that exchanges and platforms provide.

7) Circle

Circle is a key name in stablecoins. Citi’s framework suggests that as stablecoin policy frameworks become more established, companies tied to stablecoin issuance and infrastructure can gain credibility and broader use in payments, remittances, and financial services.

8) Bullish

Citi also flagged Bullish among digital-asset names that could gain from regulation-driven legitimacy. The general idea is that stronger rulebooks can support more participation, which benefits platforms offering trading and related services.

Important note: Crypto-related stocks can still be highly volatile. Even “good regulation news” doesn’t guarantee smooth performance, and business results can be sensitive to market cycles.

Lending-Focused Stocks Citi Highlighted

The third bucket Citi discussed is modern lending. If consumer financial health improves, demand for credit can shift, default risk can change, and lenders may adjust their appetite for new loans. Citi also suggested that broader “populist regulation” could influence the structure and growth of private credit markets, which may create tailwinds for certain platforms.

9) SoFi

SoFi blends digital banking, lending, and financial services into one ecosystem. In a world where consumers look for simpler, app-based money management—and where rules push toward clearer pricing and better consumer outcomes—integrated platforms can be attractive. Citi included SoFi as a lending-related name that could see benefits if consumer strength improves and credit markets evolve.

10) Upstart

Upstart uses technology models to evaluate borrowers and help originate loans. Its performance depends heavily on credit conditions, funding markets, and risk appetite. Citi’s mention suggests that if policy-driven affordability measures lift consumer stability, it may support lending activity and outcomes—though this area can swing quickly if the economy changes direction.

11) Pagaya

Pagaya was also included among lending-linked plays. Like others in this category, the opportunity is tied to how credit is sourced, priced, and distributed—especially if new rules or market shifts change who provides credit and how it reaches consumers.

Software Names Citi Added to the Theme (Small Business + Consumer Finance Tools)

Citi’s list didn’t stop at “pure” fintech. It also included software companies that can benefit if small businesses form faster, grow more quickly, or invest more in tools that help them sell and manage customers.

Shopify

Shopify provides e-commerce infrastructure. If more people start small businesses, or if existing merchants become more confident and expand online, Shopify can benefit from higher subscription adoption and more merchant activity.

Intuit (TurboTax, Credit Karma)

Intuit was cited because it sits in both consumer and small-business finance workflows. Citi discussed how changes in tax policy or stimulus-like impacts could lead to more complexity and potentially more demand for tax software, referencing TurboTax specifically. Intuit also owns Credit Karma, which operates in credit and financial product discovery—areas that can expand when consumer health improves and lenders compete for borrowers.

HubSpot

HubSpot provides marketing and customer tools used by many small and mid-sized businesses. If policy incentives encourage new business creation, those businesses often need software to find customers, manage leads, and grow. Citi’s inclusion suggests HubSpot could get a lift from that broader small-business tailwind.

Connecting the Dots: The “Second-Order Winners” Idea

One of the most useful investing ideas in Citi’s framework is the concept of second-order winners.

First-order winners are the obvious ones—like retailers if consumers have more cash. Second-order winners are the companies that enable, finance, or streamline the behaviors that follow. For example:

If consumers spend more, digital payments volume rises.
If more people start businesses, payment processing and back-office software demand rises.
If credit rules shift, shoppers may explore BNPL options that feel simpler.
If crypto rules become clearer, mainstream participation can increase for exchanges and stablecoin platforms.

These aren’t guaranteed outcomes—but they’re logical pathways. That’s why Citi is emphasizing fintech rather than only “storefront” consumer names.

Key Risks and “Reality Checks” Investors Should Keep in Mind

Even if the theme is compelling, it’s not a free lunch. Here are major risks that can disrupt the story:

Policy risk (big promises, slow reality)

Proposals don’t always become laws. And even when they do, the details matter. A small change in how a rule is written can create totally different winners and losers.

Economic risk (consumer strength can flip)

If the economy slows, unemployment rises, or borrowing costs remain high, consumer health can weaken. That can hit fintech volumes, lending performance, and small-business confidence.

Competitive risk (fintech is crowded)

Many fintech products look similar on the surface. Companies must keep innovating, controlling costs, and winning trust. “Easy onboarding” is great—until everyone offers it.

Regulatory risk (yes, even when regulation helps)

Clear rules can help the industry, but they can also raise compliance costs. Some companies may benefit from legitimacy while others struggle with the extra overhead.

Valuation risk (great story, pricey stock)

Sometimes markets “price in” a theme quickly. A stock can be connected to a strong narrative and still be risky if expectations are too high.

How to Use This Citi Theme Without “Over-Betting”

If you’re thinking about this idea as an investor or a student of markets, here are practical ways to approach it without going overboard:

Separate the story from the business: ask how the company actually makes money (transactions, subscriptions, interest income, etc.).
Watch leading indicators: consumer delinquency trends, small-business formation data, payment volumes, and app engagement can hint whether the theme is strengthening.
Look for “durable advantages”: brand trust, network effects, unique distribution, and cost advantages can matter more than short-term hype.
Balance categories: fintech payments, lending, and crypto infrastructure do not move the same way in every market cycle.

Most importantly, remember Citi’s thesis is conditional: it depends on policy direction, implementation, and real-world consumer and business behavior.

FAQ

1) What does Citi mean by “populism” in this context?

In this case, it refers to policy ideas framed around affordability and consumer support—such as proposals affecting credit-card rates, housing purchases by institutions, and potential tax credits for small businesses.

2) Why wouldn’t retailers be the main winners if consumers have more money?

Retailers could benefit, but Citi argues fintech may be a “second-order winner” because stronger consumer finances and pro-digital policies can boost payments, lending, and business software adoption—sometimes across many sectors at once.

3) Which fintech companies did Citi highlight?

Citi highlighted Block, Affirm, Klarna, Toast, and Bill Holdings as examples of fintech platforms that can benefit from digital adoption, transparent pricing models, and stronger consumer/small-business conditions.

4) Why are crypto-related companies included in a “populism” investment theme?

Citi’s angle is that regulation can bring legitimacy to digital assets. If regulatory frameworks become clearer, it may encourage broader participation and reduce uncertainty for platforms like Coinbase and companies tied to stablecoins like Circle.

5) What lending stocks did Citi mention, and why?

Citi mentioned SoFi, Upstart, and Pagaya as lending-focused names that could see tailwinds if consumer strength improves and if credit-market structure shifts in ways that favor modern lending platforms.

6) What are the biggest risks to this whole idea?

The biggest risks include policy uncertainty (proposals may not pass or may change), economic slowdowns that weaken consumers, intense competition in fintech, shifting compliance costs, and the possibility that stock prices already reflect optimistic expectations.

Conclusion: Citi’s Core Message in One Line

Citi’s message is straightforward: if Trump’s affordability and populism agenda meaningfully boosts consumer and small-business financial health—and if regulation favors transparent, digital-first models—then fintech and related software platforms may be among the most attractive places to look for stock-market beneficiaries, not just traditional consumer names.

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